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Politics : President Barack Obama -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RetiredNow who wrote (111263)	3/16/2012 11:52:51 PM
From: Sr K	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 149317

What's the context of Bush said, "This sucker's goin' down!" Just that he threw his unintelligent hands in the air and gave up doing anything about it? That "China is slowing dramatically" has been misinterpreted. A slowdown from 10% to 9% to maybe 7.5% is not what non-economists think when they hear "slowdown". You're an economist, or so I believe. Or you have an education and a career in economics. But, the "ongoing property crisis that could blow up" bears watching and their government constraining credit and requiring larger downpayments.

To: RetiredNow who wrote (111263)	3/23/2012 1:46:42 PM
From: tejek	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 149317

I think there are many fundamental reasons why a recession is imminent. However, what I haven't focused on too much is that there are also many looming risks that have a decent probability of turning into negative exogenous shocks to the global economy. Here's my top 3 concerns: * ongoing European saga of the PIIGS, any of the major ones like Spain, Portugal, or Italia blow up and as Bush said, "This sucker's goin' down!" * China is slowing dramatically and has an ongoing property crisis that could blow up; I'm less worried about this, because China has $3 trillion in dollar reserves they can use to cushion the blow. So even if they blow up, the globe may not feel it for many years. * Israel may attack Iran. Those guys are trigger happy and Iran is one of their arch enemies. They won't allow further progress towards a nuclear Iran. Check out the article below for more recent info. MM, there are always risks to any economic expansion. That's why they say that Wall Street climbs a wall of worry. However, right now, I think the likelihood of expansion outweighs the risks to contraction. The economy seems to have turned a corner last fall and is getting stronger, not weaker.