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To: RDavidson who wrote (6474)	11/24/1997 12:08:00 AM
From: TokyoMex	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 31646

Roger, There will be more banks to follow IMHO. Next is Korea, as same as Japan syndrom. The post 88 Olympic realestate boom and corporations owned by Jae Buls were busy buying real estates hidden in family members names as well as buying in the company title, rather than reinvesting in the business. With same realestate they secured bank loans. And the government allowed the loans go through the banks even though some of these Jae Bul group did not have enogh equity, for an exchange of political donations and personal favourtism. As we all know the real estate boom has burst. I personally boughta 1100 sq ft small 2 bdr Apt in a high rise in Oct of 87 from for 70,000 from a family who was being posted overses. When the Olymic was finished and was gone, it was worth 28,000 USD in Dec of 88. Everything else rose of course. Thats why all these big business wants to hold the Olympics in theor cities not for the bloody humanitarian reasons and never has been. This tradition of favourtism started from Confuscian era and more prevalently at the Lee dynasty to modern Meijii dynasty in Japan. The mentality stayed and became more open during the Military rule of Park, Jung Hee, who was assasinated to recent president Chun , Doo Whan , who is now serving life sentence with his succesor presidnet Ro TAe Woo for ripping off peoples money and the massacre of Kwang Ju citizens only a 15 years ago. The falling of the Japanese and soon Korean banks lie in this age old traditon of croanism and favourtism. Loans made to your school chums or political favourites. It will bleed more. IMHO This has been a double edged sword, during the 60s in Japan, 70s in Korea, all they had was manpower and the economy had to survive via export. Japan had part of the Martial Plan money , which later became IMF, also they made money building and supplying US military acquisitions during the Korean war. All the bombarded heavy industries like Mitsubishi, Hitachi Zosen, even Honda and Toyota became the vendors to the US military build up for Korean War. Rather than building it in the USA all the parts it was a strategicallyu built in Japan. It was also the US policy to give Japan a moderate growth. Japanese took it from there to the transister radios, like Hong Kong of today. Korea did not have this Martial Plan, after WW II, which folowed by a bitter war between N and S, where some 50,000 Americans died.The war it self was a tragedy. At the end of the WWII at the Yalta with Churchill, Stalin and Truman, they divided a country in order to settle the war in quickest possible term. Some historians blame this on Truman and the reelection campaigne back home. Also Americans were fed up with foreign wars where there children died in a cold bitter winter nights. Aftef the war it was led by president Rhee a Princeton graduate, with 20th century ideas for a country still torn in modernism and feudal caste system with all the social taboos, Rhee was too modern for his own good, and the croanies worked on him corruption etc. The countries GNP was $15 P/A at the time. Park and his military took over the country in a blodless coup de tat and even though he was a dictator he had a vision. People in the country were eating grasses due to famine, just like North Korea of today. Park changed that economy at a great human rights sacrifice. in short 20 years he made a subsistant country in to a 11 th largest economy in the world, 5th biggest trading partner with US and largest internet user per capita in the world. But the corruption, nepotism and favourtism still continues. Same as in Japan. Its an inherent Asian thing, something I came here to get away from. In my college days I fought so many policemen, i had many many bumps on my head. I dont know why I mumbled on but just wanted you to know that because of this underlying old schlool boy net work, the provincial clique, the intimidation ny power all the things Confuscious tought to respect the elders etc also got abused and made social slaves of Asian business mode. The Japanese banks are not finished going down, also Korean banks will go down, with further devaluation, and bankruptcies by major corporations. Possibley the reginal banks are the ones that will come to the rescue in case of Japan and IMF and Asian Fund, part of IMF will save Korea. Like you said Roger, inherent volatility still exists due to Asian markets. I am looking for a possible DOW sell off soon from the MMs profit taking and unfinished window dressin, before going back up to higher level. I also think there will be a tech rallye soon. From here to mid Dec. I think some of these beaten techs will give 50% return come Feb- April. Joe Just my ramblings until TPRO gets moving again.