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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (88188)	3/21/2012 2:50:11 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 219368

Latin America at $10.3bn record for fundraising Last year was also notable for a record volume of private equity exits in spite of hostile stock market conditions in the second half of the year By Joe Leahy in São Paulo Funds raised for private equity and venture capital investment in Latin America last year hit a record as investors sought to tap into fast economic growth in the region. The amount raised for Latin America reached $10.3bn, up 27 per cent on 2010 which was also a record, with Brazil-dedicated funds accounting for the bulk of the total at $8.1bn, according to figures from the Latin American Private Equity & Venture Capital Association. “You have by far the deepest pool of fund managers in Brazil and the longest track record of raising and investing multiple funds and returning money to investors,” said Cate Ambrose, president of Lavca. Private equity has become an important driver of mergers and acquisitions in the region in sectors ranging from travel and technology to energy and logistics. Investors are attracted by the region’s growing middle classes, its emerging energy industry in cities such as Rio de Janeiro and its huge infrastructure needs. In a recent example, the Carlyle Group bought an 85 per cent stake in Ri Happy, Brazil’s largest retail toy chain, for an undisclosed amount this month, giving the group access to an industry that is estimated to have more than doubled in sales in the five years to 2010. “It is one of those industries that with the emergence of the middle class and the growth of the economy … you would expect an increase in spending,” said Juan Carlos Felix, managing director for Carlyle in Brazil, of the toy sector. The year was characterised by the raising of large funds by Brazilian based groups. Homegrown investment bank BTG Pactual raised the biggest pool of capital to date, a $1.5bn growth fund. Vinci Capital Partners and Patria Investimentos, part-owned by US buyout group Blackstone, closed similarly sized funds last year. Ms Ambrose said there was interest in the entire region, particularly in markets such as Colombia, which is growing faster than Brazil, although the industry is still new in these countries. While the outlook is still unclear for fundraising this year, Ms Ambrose said the region was continuing to draw interest. “There will continue to be new institutional investors doing their first investments in LatAm this year,” Ms Ambrose said. Last year was also notable for a record volume of private equity exits in spite of hostile stock market conditions in the second half of the year. Exits totalled $10.6bn, more than three times the volume of a year earlier. The biggest was the $4.4bn divestment by Ashmore Energy International of its Latin American portfolio. New investments were $6.5bn, down from $7.2bn a year earlier, amid a large number of technology-related deals in data centres and software, as well as others, such as an investment by Gávea, controlled by JPMorgan, in hire car company Unidas.

To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (88188)	3/21/2012 2:58:36 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 219368

What is new is this: Trying to slow down decline actually increases it. administration should retreat from billions of dollars in "deeply damaging" defense cuts and begin investing in a new generation of tanks, planes and ships as the nation confronts danger around the globe, the chairman of the House Armed Services Committee said Wednesday. The Congressional Budget Office estimated Tuesday that the government will run a $1.2 trillion deficit for the budget year ending just a few weeks before Election Day, the fourth straight year of trillion-dollar-plus red ink.

To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (88188)	3/21/2012 5:15:49 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 219368

Samuelson: On Japan's lost decades – and ours? By: ROBERT J. SAMUELSON \| Times-Dispatch Published: March 14, 2012 Updated: March 14, 2012 - 12:00 AM Since the financial crisis, a shadow has hovered over the U.S. economy: Japan. Could what happened there happen to us? The bursting of Japan's real estate and stock bubble in the early 1990s has had lasting consequences: a "lost decade" (actually, two) of meager growth and weak job markets. Though hardly a depression, Japan's prosperity has been partial and unsatisfying, enjoyed by some and missed by others. Let it be said that some economists now think Japan could break from this dismal pattern. Here is John Makin of the American Enterprise Institute in a recent commentary: "After many years of false starts, the Japanese economy may finally be set to boom — or at least to enter a period of sustained growth with a sharply rising stock market." At about 9,900, Japan's Nikkei stock index is about a quarter of its historical high of 39,915.87 in 1989. Makin's optimism stems from the recent decision by the Bank of Japan (the BOJ is Japan's Federal Reserve) to ease credit until inflation, now virtually nonexistent, reaches 1 percent. If successful, the BOJ would end periodic bouts of deflation — falling prices — that, Makin and other economists contend, hobbled the economy. Falling prices cause people to postpone purchases, expecting items to become cheaper. Deflation also deters borrowing, because debts have to be repaid in more expensive currency. The BOJ's decision, taken Feb. 14, might reverse these trends. To generate higher inflation, the BOJ would inject money into the economy. Some extra cash would go into consumer spending; some would go into the stock market. Lastly, higher inflation could cause the yen to depreciate, reviving exports by making them cheaper. Combined with rebuilding after last year's devastating earthquake, all this would revive the economy. That's the theory. Japan's experience has relevance for America's tepid recovery. How much can fiscal policy (government budget policy) and monetary policy (interest rates, credit conditions) compensate for underlying structural problems? Since the early 1990s, Japan has run loose monetary policies and large budget deficits. They haven't fully resuscitated the economy. Some economists argue that these policies were always too little, too late; others contend that there are limits to what textbook economic policies can do. "Japan has a political system that looks disturbingly like the United States'," says economist Marcus Noland of the Peterson Institute. "The elected political elites seem unable to formulate compromises that redound (positively) on the economy." He cites lagging reconstruction of the Tohoku region that was hit by the earthquake. Japan faces three major structural problems — and, interestingly, there's an American counterpart for each. First, the country's basic economic model is broken. That model was export-led growth. It worked well until the mid-1980s, when the yen's rising value made exports much more expensive. Japan has yet to create an adequate substitute. The U.S. counterpart is consumption-led economic growth. From the 1980s to 2007, Americans went on a shopping spree; they skimped on saving and borrowed against rising home values and stock portfolios. The loss of much of that wealth has now dampened consumer spending. It's unclear whether a new engine of growth will emerge, and what it might be. Japan's second problem is an aging and falling population. Already, nearly one out of four Japanese is 65 or older; the birth rate of 1.4 (meaning 1.4 children for each Japanese woman) is well below the replacement rate of about two. This weakens the domestic market and raises government spending on the elderly. The United States has a similar problem, though milder. By 2025, the 65-and-over population is projected at 18 percent of the total, up from 13 percent in 2010. Finally, both Japan and the United States have huge government debts — reflecting slow growth, aging populations and "stimulus" programs. In Japan, gross government debt exceeds 200 percent of the economy (gross domestic product); the comparable U.S. figure is about half that. So far, both governments have borrowed easily. Japanese investors seem willing to hold government bonds; global investors trust U.S. Treasuries. But both governments someday face a reckoning of reducing spending, raising taxes or both. For Americans, the lesson from Japan is that the loss of economic dynamism changed both the nature of its prosperity and the national condition. Younger workers face fewer good opportunities; often they are shunted into low-paying, temporary jobs. This is surely one factor (but only one) in the low birth rate. Political leaders find it harder to make tough decisions in a weak economy, and their indecision contributes to the economy's weakness. It happened to them. It could happen to us — and maybe already is.