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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cogito who wrote (128864)

3/22/2012 3:12:40 AM

From: XoFruitCake

2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 213173

I challenge anyone who wants to represent a bearish view on Apple now or in the future to come on down

I am very long on Apple option right now but I can give a long term bearish view of Apple. Right now Iphone is about 50% of Apple earning. And the main reason is that Apple has been eating into the high end competitor market share (look at the chart here.. Nokia, RIMM, HTC are all losing market share while Apple and Samsung are gaining market share from 2010 to 2011) and the have great profit margin while the competitors suck.

In 4Q11, Samsung and Apple lead the global smartphone shipment. Samsung and Apple go after the market in a different way. Apple is going after the high end, high margin market. Samsung is going after all market and most successful in low end Android market. Apple is very successful in the high end market but that market is limited. The smart phone market grow at 75% in 10, 50% in 11 and may be 35% or so in 12 and head down from there. The over all phone market grow about 6% a year (dumb phone+smart phone). The conversion from dumb phone really fuel the smart phone growth. But that growth is slowing down. And the most newly converted are really focus on low end smartphone. There are only so many folks willing and able to pay $400-700 for a phone, may be 30-35% of the smart phone market (and Apple already has 23-24% of the market in 4Q11). The rest of them want just $100-200 smartphone. RIMM user are the prime target for Iphones. But once Apple convert all of the high end competitor customers, where will the additional high end user come from. At some point it will become a replacement market in high end and not growing much anymore. And the replacement cycle start out at a new phone each year. And as time go by, change to every 2 years and may be every 3 to 4 years. For me, I think Iphone 5 will be the greatest phone money maker for Apple as they can expand the market share to 30% or so.....But Life after Iphone 5 is going to be a lot harder.

I am much more bullish on Apple tablet market. I can see that Ipad can replace a vast majority of laptop market and eventually hitting the desktop market.

zdnet.com.au

allaboutwindowsphone.com

This is the shipment number for all cell phone (dumb + smart). Note that the yoy growth is only 6%. As of 4Q11, smartphone is already (157.8/427.4)=36.9% of the overall cell phone market..
Top Five Mobile Phone Vendors, Shipments, and Market Share, Q4 2011 (Units in Millions)

Vendor	4Q11 Shipments	4Q11 Market Share	4Q10 Shipments	4Q10 Market Share	Y-over-Y Change
Nokia	113.5	26.6%	123.7	30.7%	-8.2%
Samsung	97.6	22.8%	80.7	20.0%	20.9%
Apple	37.0	8.7%	16.2	4.0%	128.4%
LG Electronics	17.7	4.1%	30.6	7.6%	-42.2%
ZTE	17.1	4.0%	15.7	3.9%	8.9%
Others	144.5	33.8%	135.9	33.7%	6.3%
Total	427.4	100.0%	402.8	100.0%	6.1%