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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: XoFruitCake who wrote (128962)	3/22/2012 9:53:53 PM
From: pyslent	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 213173

I guess I'm not sure I understand your question. I will agree that the iPhone's addressible market is limited; maybe your estimate of about 30% of the entire handset market is right. So every year, over a billion handsets get sold, 30% of which are shopping for phones like the iPhone. It doesn't matter whether these are new customers, 1 year replacements or 2 or 3 year replacements, though right? Apple could temporarily drive a faster upgrade cycle with a killer feature, but it will all average out in the end.

To: XoFruitCake who wrote (128962)	3/22/2012 10:35:22 PM
From: Cogito	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 213173

>>So at the end of the day, Apple dominate position depend on having "must have" feature on their phone in every iteration of their product. After a couple iteration of product without "must have" feature, customer will start looking for alternative and stretch out the replacement cycle.<< I don't think most iPhone or iPad users have been upgrading every time a new model comes out, and I don't think Apple depends on that.

To: XoFruitCake who wrote (128962)	3/23/2012 4:06:58 AM
From: Road Walker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 213173

I think the current upgrade cycle is two years, in the US driven at least partially by the carrier contracts. I know few people who upgrade every year; I know a lot who upgrade every two years. So Apple has two years or generations to introduce compelling new features and/or form factors. You are right that as the smartphone market matures, this will become more difficult. But we're only 5-6 years into the smartphone category as its known today, so I imagine we have another five years at least before it matures to the point when upgrades are minimal. And then someone will probably come along and make a phone that isn't "as we know it today". Look at the car market. Sure a lot of people buy a car and run it until it won't run anymore. Others buy a new car every two years. It's a mature market but the car makers still find a way to provide new and compelling styles and benefits.