Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : The Big Picture - Economics and Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sid Turtlman who wrote (430)	11/26/1997 12:01:00 AM
From: greenspirit	Respond to of 686

Those are some good points Sid, I guess the main area of difference we see is in the area of growth. I would agree that growth in the majuring markets of Japan will and have slowed dramatically, however, the southern povinces of China are still experiencing phenomenol growth. Nearly 10% on average. This small region of China represents nearly 300 million people. Also I believe we will continue to see, (after this crisis passes) strong growth in Taiwan, Philipines, Korea, Singapore, India and Malaysia. Throw in Australia and New Zealand and I still see a pretty bullish scenario for technology companies to prosper. I understand your point too about these trends being around for quite a while, but what can you point to and say with real certainty has changed the macro landscape dramatically? Except the markets going up 50%. What I sense, and I could be wrong, is many people (possibly yourself included) believe that the stock market just can't continue to go up at the rate it has for the last 5 years, so they are looking for reasons that it should end. It's really an unprecedented bull market in the history of America. I still see the same events shaping this market that I saw shaping the markets 6 years ago. The fall of the berlin wall, the freeing of millions of consumers, the realization in America's political wings that we believe in the free enterprise system again. The demographics of baby boomers shifting from spenders to investors, causing this macro economic cycle to continue. At least for a while longer. How long?? I really don't know. But another 5 years seems logical from a demographic point of view. Michael

To: Sid Turtlman who wrote (430)	11/26/1997 9:00:00 AM
From: greenspirit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 686

Sid, found an interesting article this morning, strangely supporting points #3 and #4. :-) I thought you would enjoy. japanbiztech.com One other point Sid, the Internet on a macro economic scale is brand new. For all practical purposes it's only been around since 1992. This will be remembered as the decade of the Internet. It's effects are only now being felt on a small scale. When buying a product over the Net becomes as normal as driving to your local Safeway, we will be able to sense the Macro economic importance of this change. I don't believe it can be understated. We are talking about putting the Global economy in the hands of each individual. It's never been done before. Times are different. Michael