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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Investor2 who wrote (55866)4/1/2012 1:07:50 PM
From: Return to Sender1 Recommendation  Respond to of 95560
 
The indicator may be bullish but it is only a very limited view of what is happening in the market. Think about it for a moment; The indicator is a reflection of how many stocks in the S&P 100 are over their 200 day sma. All it shows is the bluest of the blue chip in the S&P 500. That's a pretty limited view. In every bull market as they become more mature fewer and fewer stocks are hitting new highs even though the market may go on to hitting new highs based on indexes like the S&P 100.



At the same time the Russell 2000 is not hitting new highs. In a really healthy rally small caps lead:



The SOX has yet to match its previous highs.



My take is simple. If you want to invest based on this indicator then find an ETF based on the S&P 100 and be nimble because it is not go enough to help you much with anything else.

My take on the market is that we can continue higher until monthly charts show RSI of 70 or more like they have done at past market tops. Look for high volume distribution at the top.



Regardless, investors need to understand that the number of stocks making new highs are falling as this rally gets more mature giving us tops with lower numbers of new highs:



If you don't buy the right stocks now then you are much more likely to be disappointed than you would have been if you went long in March of 2009.

JMHO