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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (55872)	4/1/2012 3:29:53 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	1 Recommendation Respond to of 95569

RtS, Thanks for sharing the indicators and insight. It may be awhile before another bottom occurs, but I think now we are getting close to a peak. The summary articles posted by you and Sam this weekend had a lot to say about the present situation. The market action this coming week should tell us a lot about where we are. Now for some fundamental information. The table shows quarterly and yearly information about the 18 stocks that I follow each quarter with previous earnings actuals and future earnings estimates. With the FY/CY quarter ending this past Friday, more actual data will be available in the next several weeks. In preparation for this data, I upgraded the quarterly and yearly columns this weekend. The columns look rather complicated, but let's look at them in the following way. 1. The 2 left quarterly columns show comparisons of actuals for Dec 2011 versus Dec 2010. Note the bottom line, 2011 fell off considerably compared to 2010(7.20 vs 10.70) 2. The next 2 columns show the Mar 11 actuals compared to the Mar 12 estimates. Not good again, bottom line estimate for Mar 12 is 5.22 compared to Mar 11 actuals of 9.74. Also, this is less than half of the Dec 10 actuals of 10.70. 3. The next 3 columns show the actual differences in the individual stocks. Only 2 of the 18 stocks have Mar 12 estimates better than their Mar 11 actuals. Sequentially, only 3 of the stocks have Mar 12 estimates better than their Dec 11 actuals. Even worse, only 3 stocks have Mar 12 estimates greater than their Dec 10 actuals. 4. Moving on to the yearly data, look at the first columns comparing 2009 and 2010 data. The bottom line shows the great recovery year(1.39 to 34.61). 5. Now on to the remaining 3 years. The individual stock data is mixed, some estimates up and some down compared to the actuals of 2010 and 2011. However, note that at the bottom line, the numbers are close to the 2010 actuals. This year coming up, 2012, is down 17 percent compared to 2010 actuals. Hardly the stuff of which to make stock price gains. Also, at the moment, the estimate for 2013 is only up 10.3 percent from 2010 actuals.