To: Steve Lokness who wrote (14420 ) 4/2/2012 8:51:47 PM From: Brian Sullivan 1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 85487 US Political Risk Has Grown One wildcard that has the potential to disrupt our generally positive outlook is the US political situation. The United States faces some enormous economic, tax policy and debt-related issues that need to be resolved by the end of 2012, but it is becoming increasingly clear that little or no action is likely to be taken until after the November elections. There appears to be a general consensus that a lame duck session of Congress in December will become the venue for cobbling together some new economic and tax policies, but there is no guarantee that Congress will be able to act in time to write and pass legislation. Specifically, we believe Congress needs to act to extend or redesign the Bush-era tax cuts that are scheduled to expire at the end of this year and to reconsider the budget sequestration that calls for $600 billion over 10 years in cuts for both defense and domestic discretionary spending. Should Congress fail to act, we believe there would be significant negative effects for the US economy and financial markets. The consensus among economists is that if nothing is done, higher tax rates and sharp spending cuts would shave between 3% and 4% off of the pace of US economic growth, which could trigger a high probability of a recession. An additional issue is that the debt ceiling may need to be raised again before the end of 2012, and as we saw from the acrimonious debate surrounding this issue last year, such issues cannot be taken lightly. In recent years, Congress and the Administration have made a habit of waiting until the last possible minute to address these sorts of issues, and they certainly could do so again this year, but in any case, investors have reason to be concerned. news.morningstar.com