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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sam who wrote (55888)	4/3/2012 10:25:44 PM
From: Return to Sender	2 Recommendations Respond to of 95611

Is SNDK the new canary in a coal mine? I don't think so. SNDK's chart has traditionally followed that of the SOX: But it is interesting that SNDK is warning earlier than most semi related stocks in this sector. That is if they are going to warn at all. RtS

To: Sam who wrote (55888)	4/4/2012 11:26:18 AM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95611

This may be the tip of the iceberg for this quarters earnings. SNDK has been a big earner for the semis, and their warning will hurt. How much hurt we have yet to find out. A lot of articles out already last night and today on ratings and revised earnings, etc. Here is one of them. <<SANDISK (SNDK) CUTS Q1 FORECAST. WEDBUSH LOWERS ESTIMATES, TARGET; KEEPS NEUTRAL S&P Marketscope 2012-04-04 10:02 Analyst Betsy Van Hees tells salesforce SNDK cut $1.3B-$1.35B Q1 rev. view to ~$1.2B on weaker-than-expected NAND pricing, demand. Says reduced rev. view not too surprising, given Q1 is seasonally weakest Q for pricing, demand, but co.'s saying Q1 pro-forma gross margin also would be below forecast was. Is concerned reduced GM view could imply production cost cuts may no longer be outpacing NAND avg. selling price drops, which could potentially set stage for more challenging environment in H2. Cuts $4.00 '12 EPS est. to $3.29, $4.11 '13 to $3.35; $45 tgt to $42.>> Looking at the table of estimates, it will take a few days to finalize the change in the consensus earnings number, but because SNDK has been such an important contributor to the bottom line, the change will be relatively significant at the bottom line. The previous consensus numbers from the table for 2012 and 2013 are 4.70 and 5.46. Wedbush has cut their estimates to 3.29 and 3.35 from 4.00 and 4.11. The jury is still out on the net result of the SNDK warning, and whether or not other changes will be forthcoming, but we could very well be seeing a lot less dark green and more yellow and red on the rolling 13 quarter tables soon.<NG>