Jack is eating, playing, pooing and doing everything double time n in double portion.
Mean while, just in / out e-mail tray
On 5 Apr, 2012, at 1:33 PM, j wrote:
R, how does Phuket look?
Here on island near Kota Kinabalu, and the spiffy-enough resort is uncharacteristically devoid of visitors other than family-valued Chinese of various regimes and thrifty-valued Germans of the united sort. Exception, there is a lone Russian family, seemingly out of place, feeling alone and squished amongst traditional terror on one side and customary fear on the other.
Out of the three groups, suspect at least two shall drop off before the bell is rung. Unsure of timing of bell ring. Should all three groups drop off, must wonder to what extent the the resort value might deflate irregardless of the counter-actions of the preemptive sort legislated out of washington and of the reactive sort dispensed out of new York, all to be funded by the 'dollar holding muppets'.
Conspicuous by absence are the traditionally ubiquitous Japanese and the accidentally everywhere Americans .... Am guessing that the Japanese may have been exhausted by 20+ years of recovery, and the Americans might be tired of 10+ years of reversion to the mean.
No Koreans, surprisingly, and a recent state of was. Are they done in as well? Unsure, but now on watch n brief.
No Greeks, Irish, spaniards, British, or Italians. Am not so surprised.
Also no Aussies, somewhat unexpected, but perhaps there are not enough of them to go around in the first place, or that they are disguised as Chinese. Hard to say these days with all the folks playing residency musical chairs.
Curious fact, the Germans here are not the sort to occupy poolside seating at the crack of dawn w/o ever showing up in person, and the Chinese here are not loud; maybe the occupation-sort of Germans are visiting Greece, and the loud Chinese gracing hainan
Wonder what sort of a party one can organize by g making available to the thread the big 13,000-containers ship leased to Cosco - imagine, 78 kilometers of containers laid end to end, all stacked w/ models :0) like, oh whoa.
chinadaily.com.cn (
Models pose at Hainan Int'l Boat Show
(chinadaily.com.cn)
Updated: 2010-12-11 11:07
Comments(6) PrintMail Large Medium Small
Models pose during the opening ceremony of the 2010 Hainan International Boat Show in Haikou, capital of South China's Hainan province, Dec 10, 2010. The show, which displays more than 60 yachts from home and abroad, kicked off in Haikou on Friday. [Photo/Asianewsphoto]
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Cheers, j
Sent from my iPad
On 5 Apr, 2012, at 6:30 AM, r wrote:
I'm curious what the thread thinks-I've little doubt the presses will be cranked up over the next few months-
but do do we see a bigger washout in all asset prices (15% +) first, imho-providing justification for such printing -or do we feel we have a FED which will attempt to maintain asset prices at rough current levels and move them up from here or a point slightly lower.
Note: went to Kamala yesterday (Phuket-and saw a large gold jewelry emporium built into the complex which sells household items, and has a bank office in it... the first I've seen here but I am largely confined to Phuket on my motorbike.
On Apr 4, 2012, at 2:56 PM, mf wrote:
Irving Fisher was one of the greatest economists of the 20th century but a complete failure as an investor.
MF
From: b
Sent: Thursday, April 05, 2012 5:40 AM'
Subject: RE: Comments - Week of April 2
LOL - and yes, there's more than a little truth in that bit about Friedman... and I'll bet if I looked enough I could find a Keynes quote or two close to what Hayek or Mises held too. ;-) (can't let you get off easily, you know - and I specialize in heresy ;-)
Agreed on it not being a requirement to be a good investor, but I've always found that the best teachers can really *do well* what they teach. Either what they teach is correct and can be directly & successfully applied... or you have Krugman & Summers, etc.... whom I don't view as people that Keynes would have approved of - at least their bastard econ sides. Their answer is spend, no matter what, which isn't Keynesian. They're both lib(eral)tards.
Light speed is 186k miles/second - not only a good idea, it's the law? ;-)
From: H
Sent: Wednesday, April 04, 2012 2:48 PM
Subject: Re: Comments - Week of April 2
LOL re. Friedman - as Hayek said in an interview late in his life 'you know, in a sense he's really a Keynesian...' :)
I don't think it is a requirement for a good economist to be a good investor or a good businessman. That is an entirely different type of talent. It is of course possible for a good economist to also be a good investor, but even being a bad investor/or businessman couldn't detract from whether an economists economic theorizing is valuable or not. For instance, just because Keynes was apparently good at investing for a number of years there is no reason to believe that his economic theory is any good. It stands and falls on its own merits.
To be aware of a correct economic theory can undoubtedly be helpful in the investment process - but there are a great many good investors and even many more gifted entrepreneurs that have not the foggiest idea of what constitutes a good economic theory - in fact, many have only very rudimentary knowledge of economics.
Nevertheless, all of them are subject to economic laws, whether they know it or not.
On Wed, Apr 4, 2012 at 9:36 PM, b wrote:
You just lost a bunch of Austrian geek points by calling Friedman an economist, and without modifiers... ;-)
Sad that we don't know how any of them did in real detail and over time - in the real world where the rubber meets the road.
From: H
Sent: Wednesday, April 04, 2012 1:11 PM
Subject: Re: Comments - Week of April 2
That's because they weren't big investors, they were economists. I do know that Mises predicted the crash and depression in a fairly timely fashion - he refused a post he was offered with Creditanstalt because he knew what was coming. But there is no record of him making money from that prediction - all we know is that he didn't want his reputation tarnished by being associated with a bank he thought might get into big trouble.
On Wed, Apr 4, 2012 at 9:03 PM, b wrote:
I've never seen any figures on investing successes or failures for Friedman, Hayek, Mises, etc... (or Krugman ;-).
Got links, anyone?
From: H
Sent: Wednesday, April 04, 2012 12:22 PM
Subject: Re: Comments - Week of April 2
yep, this is curiously unmentioned.
On Mon, Apr 2, 2012 at 12:37 AM, A wrote:
If I remember correctly prior to that he also blew out both his and friends capital completely.
From: M
Sent: 01 April 2012 16:44
Subject: Re: Comments - Week of April 2
Perhaps we should dismiss Keynes as a macro-economist, but pay attention to him as a portfolio manager. Good article in the WSJ in case you missed it.....
M
online.wsj.com
SNIP:
rom 1924 through 1946, while writing numerous books and overhauling the global monetary system, Keynes also found time to run the endowment fund of King's College at Cambridge.
Over that period, according to Messrs. Chambers and Dimson, Keynes outperformed the U.K. stock market by an average of eight percentage points annually, adjusted for risk.
Such great investors as Benjamin Graham, Peter Lynch, John Templeton and Warren Buffett beat the market by an annual average of three to 13 percentage points over their careers. Most of them, however, didn't have to cope with the Great Depression or World War II.
So Keynes made a series of radical changes: He switched from being a "top down" asset allocator to a "bottom up" stock picker. He tilted sharply toward undervalued small and midsize companies.
Keynes also made titanic bets on industries he thought were cheap; by 1936, he had 66% of his portfolio in mining stocks and not a farthing in bank or energy shares. South African gold companies, he correctly foresaw, would benefit from falling currency values.
Keynes wasn't only a pioneer in owning stocks when most big investors favored bonds. He also relished risk, concentrating as much as half of his assets on his favorite five holdings or, as he called them, his "pets." Keynes clung to his typical stock for more than five years at a time. Only partly in jest, he had proposed making "the purchase of an investment permanent and indissoluble, like marriage." (Today, the average U.S. stock fund has only 19% in its five biggest positions and hangs on to its typical stock for just 15 months.)
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