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To: Hoatzin who wrote (8062)11/25/1997 9:23:00 AM
From: David Eddy  Respond to of 13949
 
Kevin -

estimate of the percentage of SAP/BAAN/PSFT conversion projects where "everything goes right"?

Impossible to precisely say for those specific packages, but taking figures from Capers Jones' book ("Patterns of Software Systems Failure & Success"), one of his exhibits indicates that in the domain of MIS software (he also tracks operating systems, military, outsourcing, communications & end-user) a largish delivery of 10,000 FP (function points, roughly equivalent to 1,000,000 lines of COBOL) has a 30% chance of on-time delivery.

Delivery of 100,000 FP has a 5% chance of ontime delivery.

You extrapolate from there.

- David