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Biotech / Medical : ImmunoGen -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: rjk01 who wrote (5486)	4/8/2012 12:57:09 PM
From: Gary Mohilner	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5665

It all depends on how long you consider a long time to be. I believe that approval of AEZS-130, along with partnerships supporting its use around the world, could easily bring $2 to $3, possibly more if the Cachexia trial is going well. This could happen this year, but is more likely next year. If a decision on the MM trials keeps Perifosine in the clinic, I believe approaching that trial conclusion we'll again see a 25 to 50% increase as top line data approaches, if positive, perhaps a double from there, if negative, depending on the status of other trials, back to levels justified by their status alone. In short, I believe upside potential at this point is good, but the only imminent event is the decision to keep Perifosine in trials. I believe the market has anticipated trial being stopped, so their is little risk from that coming to pass, but I think if they continue with a defense of Perifosine producing positive results in MM and many other cancers, it would be positive for both stocks. The start of AEZS-108 in Phase III would certainly be a positive, but guidance seems to be it won't happen until late this year. The company has further guided that they don't intend to partner the drug until after Phase III Trials are underway. I believe there are a few reasons for such a decision, the biggest being control. A partnership before Phase III starts would put the complete design of the trial into a partners hand, while a partnership after the trial begins would leave that trial as established by AEZS and the FDA. Certainly a partner could accelerate the trial by funding more trial sites, but the couldn't change the protocol, or acceptance criteria. A partner could also choose to fund other trials in different phases as they choose. This certainly is a choice companies make when they partner, doing so preclinically or in early phase trials, they give the choice of what's to be done to others. AEZS has determined to do it themselves and I believe they probably have good reason. Investors may not like the time it's taking, but waiting for the complimentary test which better identifies the patients most likely to benefit, they will be lowering their trial costs and improving the likelihood of success. As we've learned with IMGN over the decades, nothing happens as quickly as investors want, or expect, it to, but it does happen. I believe we'll see T-DM1 approved later this year, and IMGN priced in the $20's or more. I believe that if Perifosine trials continue approval is possible next year, taking prices above $10. If Perifosine doesn't continue, but AEZS-130 is approved, and AEZS-108 is in Phase III Trials by 2013, prices between $5 and $10 should be expected by then. If Cancer Cachexia is added to the uses of AEZS-130, the price should go up substantially even before approval as off label use will occur until approval as their is currently no approved way for treating this. In short, success is never assured, but on a percentage basis AEZS could do much better than IMGN from the current price, it may never bring as high a price, but then I believe IMGN by the end of this decade will either be in triple digits, or have split, if just one or two drugs besides T-DM1 gain approval. Gary