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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Davy Crockett who wrote (47734)	4/13/2012 1:02:33 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	Respond to of 69811

I think there is a psychological shift happening to traders. It is still too early in earnings season to see if it takes on a deeper conviction with traders. aapl has some decent support at the $600 level. I would be more inclined to set my initial sell point at a break of $600. Keep in mind aapl is a volatile stock so I would set my stop a little looser than normal as it is easy to get stopped out early. The next support level is $550 and then there is a big gap in support based on volume by price. aapl has been down 5 days in a row and volume has been declining each day as the selling pressure dries up. I would expect a bounce in the next 2 days. The strength or weakness of the bounce will tell you more about the psychology of traders in this stock. Despite the 5 days of selling appl is still only off 3%. That is not much for such a volatile stock. Remember that appl is product release and earning news driven stock for the most part. In between these event you are correct to assume it will loosely track the indices like the COMPQ as it is broadly held as a surrogate for technology. appl in my mind has been less of a technology company and more of a lifestyle company like some of the fashion brand companys like KORS. It depends on selling consumers an image that just happend to be based on technology. Based on P/E it is cheap compared to other technology companies. It is at the high end of the P/E for a consumer lifestyle company though. Its execution is what has given it the premium. Without Jobs, can they achieve the same execute only time will tell. Some of that uncertainty is being priced in.

To: Davy Crockett who wrote (47734)	4/13/2012 1:17:13 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 69811

Despite what the VIX is saying I have to admit the lack of the ability of the indices to string together consistent and consecutive up or down days is getting a bit concerning. Traders are reacting to every tidbit of economic news rather than signaling confidence in a specific trend. That is a reflection of the reality that no one is sure if the world's economy is recovering, slowing for a safe landing or going to dramatically slow. There is really not much to do except set you trailing stops and let the market take you out of positions, hopefully at a profit, and then wait for the next trend to emerge. The next trend could be up or down.

To: Davy Crockett who wrote (47734)	4/13/2012 7:16:14 PM
From: Davy Crockett	Respond to of 69811

Thanks for the analysis Johnny. Much appreciated!

To: Davy Crockett who wrote (47734)	4/14/2012 2:01:34 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 69811

I would expect any fall out from the price fixing lawsuit on e-books will be minor. They have enough of a war chest to pay billions of dollars in fines and still not make a dent in their ability to grow and develop the next technology. I would be more concerned if the next technology will sustain their growth. The next iPad was not really the game changer most people expected. The next iPhone is going to have to something special to keep the momentum growing. There has been some negative feedback on Siri not living up to the hype. It has not effected them negative as there were other apps such as video conference that have kept the momentum going. Keep in mind the video conferencing was WiFi based as opposed to 4G so the hype around 4G is overrated. Again this company is a lot about spin and creating a lifestyle image. Sometime the technology does not have to live up to the hype.

To: Davy Crockett who wrote (47734)	4/16/2012 1:32:28 PM
From: Davy Crockett	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 69811

Hi Johnny, AAPL going for a dive. Next level of support is $559.00 - That's $33.00 per share from here. I hope you don't mind but I'm going to congratulate myself on that short-term call. Let's put it this way, if you owned a thousand shares of AAPL, you would have saved $26,680+ if you got out when I made that call. Anyway, I stroked my ego - thanks... I don't get to do that too often<g>

To: Davy Crockett who wrote (47734)	4/19/2012 3:30:13 PM
From: Davy Crockett	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 69811

Hi Johnny, According to my very simple model, another sell signal kicked in today on AAPL. I hate to continue on the importance of AAPL, but it wasn't only me that sent it into the Stratosphere. Now, it it is making it's way back to Earth. The $20,000,000 dollar question is will float nicely back or will it plummet? My anecdotal experience is on stocks such as these are: Ride the trend until it bends & when it does... get out. The 50 day is at $587 and the 200 day.... well don't ask. It's a long way from here ($437.00). All stocks eventually correct to the 200 day sma. I'm not saying it's going to happen on this bout of weakness. But it will happen. The question is not if... but when. I'm a trader so this is a great stock (and its proxies) to play... but if your a trend follower or a buy & hold type... my advice is to get out. The risk/reward setup is no longer favourable in my opinion. BWTHDIK