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To: Gottfried who wrote (3568)	11/24/1997 8:31:00 PM
From: JEFF CHAPMAN	Respond to of 10921

Memory Market to Witness Shortage of DRAMs From 4th Quarter of 1998 11/24 14:36 The global memory market is expected to see a shortage of dynamic random access memory (DRAM) chips from the fourth quarter of next year, putting Korean chipmakers on a road to strong recovery. The Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy said yesterday the bit cross from the 16M unit, whose prices have been plunging, to the 64M chips is expected to take place in the second half of next year. Immediately thereafter, ministry officials projected, the demand for the 64M DRAMs will soar and a shortage of about 3 percent is expected from the fourth quarter which is certain to push prices up. According to the ministry's projection, total sales of semiconductors will be slightly higher than last year's $17.8 billion, boosted by an increase in the export of non-memory devices despite the poor performance of DRAMs. Next year, however, with Korean chipmakers making a smooth transition from the 16M chips to the 64M units, and the stability in the personal computer market which accounts for 70-80 percent of the memory devices, the increase in the total sales volume will be considerably higher, the officials said. ''At present, Korean chipmakers hold about 50 percent of the 64M market and with continued efforts at enhancing their competitiveness, they should maintain their dominance in the new standard memory market,'' one official explained. With the drastic fall in the prices of 16M chips, which at one point fell to below $4 in the American spot market, the Korean trio of Samsung Elecetronics, LG Semicon and Hyundai Electronics Industries have been focusing on the 64M units whose proportion has increased to as high as 32 percent in October. At present, prices of the two memory products on a long-term contract basis are estimated at $6.0-6.5 and $23-27 respectively with the 64M chips doing a much better job of holding on to their price leverage. However, after the bit cross takes place, and with the increasing demand for more powerful personal computers, the supply of the 64M chips will fall 3 percent short of demand, the ministry officials said. Such bright prospects are being confirmed by reports from forecasters like Dataquest and In-Stat indicating demand for personal computers will increase 18 percent next year, pushing up DRAM demands by 20 percent. The officials said an equilibrium between the supply and demand of the DRAM chips will be realized in the middle of next year before demand surpasses supply toward the year-end. Making the situation even brighter is the fact Korean companies are focusing on such high value-added products as synchronous and high-speed DRAMs as well as non-memory chips like the Alpha processors from Samsung, Java chips from LG and digital signal processors from Anam Industries. At the same time, both Samsung and HEI are in the final phase of completing their 64M and 256M manufacturing facilities in Austin, Texas and Eugene, Oregon respectively, thus firming up Korean chipmakers' position in the global market.

To: Gottfried who wrote (3568)	11/30/1997 3:41:00 PM
From: Wade	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Gottfried, >RL and all, an SDRAM shortage next year?... >http://techweb.cmp.com/ebn/942/ >Believe it or not: SDRAM supply could >shrink in '98 >By Andrew MacLellan Silicon Valley >Excerpt: >"I think it's likely we'll go through a period of shortage, >where the shortage is not driven by a lack of wafer capacity, >but by an inability to test," said Bill Bottoms, chairman and >chief executive of equipment maker Credence Systems Corp., >Fremont, Calif. " Would you please identify the exact URL of this article. I could not fint it from those thounds of news. Thanks. Sincerely, Wade