SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Technology Stocks : AUTOHOME, Inc -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Bob Zacks who wrote (746)11/24/1997 8:17:00 PM
From: ftth  Respond to of 29970
 
Bob, I read your post re:hiram just as I was thinking I should post an apology for being so "find the faults" oriented rather than "show the benefits" oriented. Don't think anyone could claim I have skewed opinions since about the only company I've said anything positive about is Broadcom, and they're not even a publicly traded company. I respect your post, but I hope it doesn't scare him off since he's provided some interesting food for thought over the last few days.
I detected the bias towards HLIT, but that's OK with me until such point that false information/hype become a problem.
dh



To: Bob Zacks who wrote (746)11/24/1997 11:26:00 PM
From: ahhaha  Respond to of 29970
 
Oh Bob, HW isn't an insider. Insider's don't know as much, they just work there.

I spent the afternoon studying Heavenly Lights(HLIT) and it's a viable play. Not much downside risk, and good leveraged upside potential. It'll run, but I don't think they are the kind of operation that has superior growth potential---the usual hardware risks are definitely here. If the market in cable picks up, the big boys could start moving in, and that could hurt how they are perceived by potential new customers. The company has a small technological lead, but the tecnology lacks a certain proprietarity.

Even if no one really wanted to get into their soup and demand started jumping, the company would have a capacity problem. The problem of ramping capacity would invite margin squeeze from over-capacity once the boom slowed. So you could see the shares run to 25 or 30, top and drop back down to 13. It's the usual cycle in hardware and that fact forces you to take the money and run. So if you see heavenly lights high in the sky, you gotta sell.

If the big boys pour dough into catch-up, the upside potential is ,say,20. They still do have the advantage. Management seems ok. Something like 70% of sales are concentrated into only several customers. They are making money now, but that doesn't have anything to do w.r.t. the investment argument. It's a pure cable play. When the cable plays start up, so will HLIT.

The challenge for the company in the future is to diversify into new product lines not too far removed from their bread and butter. Another idea is acquisition of symbiotic technology.If they could do that and not just depend on the re-supply market or foreign markets, then you have something more substantial. Such an expectation isn't justified now though, unless conversations with the officers reveal a greater conceptual dream and the moxie to pull it off.It would require talking to the President to see whether there is a little of Andy Grove in his make-up, not just examining a resume.