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Technology Stocks : Apple Tankwatch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eric L who wrote (19039)	4/17/2012 8:15:43 PM
From: pyslent	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 32680

"Just one set of statistics but interesting (and surprising to me) that in that limited poll the majority of AT&T Lumia 900 or Titan II Winphone purchars switched from iPhone and former feature phone users were a somewhat minority of purchasers compared to iPhone and Android switchers.. " We are probably still looking at early adopters as well as an incomplete picture of the demographic. I would speculate that feature phone switchers are less tech savvy and therefore, less likely to find themselves taking a wpcentral poll; it's hard to for me to overlook that selection bias. On the other hand, the Android vs. iPhone switching comparison is probably valid, at least, among the early adopters.

To: Eric L who wrote (19039)	4/23/2012 1:28:51 PM
From: zax	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 32680

Basically its like this Eric. The heads of AT&T, T-Mobile, Verizon and Sprint have gotten together at a fancy restaurant in Manhattan, and decided to move to the "Carrier" model... this "gentlemen's" agreement is that that no carrier is to offer phone subsidies in the form of upgrade cycles shorter than 18 months. This benefits consumers and carriers alike, in that the result is lower monthly service fees, and higher corporate profits for all carriers. Really, only Apple's forced upgrade cycle is the only thing that suffers. The informal name for this is to be the "fck Apple" agreement. What do you think? Tech Trader Daily News, analysis, and actionable investing ideas. April 23, 2012, 10:43 A.M. ET Apple: BTIG Reiterates Tight Upgrades Put iPhone at Risk* blogs.barrons.com By Tiernan Ray BTIG Research’s Walter Piecyk this morning offers a follow-up to his cut of Apple (AAPL) shares to Neutral from Buy back on April 9th, writing that the Street is missing the fact that carriers are already reining in their upgrade offers for existing customers, thus threatening iPhone sales. As an example, Piecyk points out that data from AT&T ( T) seem to suggest the company has mainly been giving subsidies to existing iPhone users, and that such a source of subsidized iPhone sales is primed to dry up as AT&T tightens its previously generous 1-year upgrade policy. While the Street muses on the possibility of future cuts to subsidies for the device, Piecyk argues the situation at AT&T is already in effect: The Apple customer on AT&T who has been upgrading their iPhone year after year at a fully subsidized price, can no longer do that. Here is some math. We estimate that 80% of iPhone sales at AT&T are upgrades to existing customers. In addition, AT&T only added 5 million new iPhone customers to its base in 2012 despite activating 17.5 million iPhones during the year. What does that math tell you? Either AT&T iPhone customers are experiencing higher than average churn (unlikely) or that it’s the iPhone customers themselves that keep upgrading for the latest iPhone. Piecyk sees AT&T activating 17.2 million iPhones this calendar year, up from 16.1 million last year. That would actually include “re-activations of used iPhones,” he writes. AT&T might cave on tighter upgrade policies, or customers could flock to Verizon Communications ( VZ) or Sprint-Nextel ( S), Piecyk writes, but he sees either of those developments being unlikely. In particular, Sprint actually saw a rise in Churn in Q4 of last year, the first quarter of having the iPhone, which Piecyk takes as an ominous sign. Piecyk thinks Sprint will see a decline in Q1 post-paid subscriber additions, and a drop in iPhone sales, writing, “Our estimate is that Sprint sells 1.4 million iPhones. What’s yours?” Apple shares this morning are down $7.15, or 1.3%, at $566.83.