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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (47764)	4/18/2012 8:13:33 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 69749

Qualcomm Beats Forecast, but Strains to Get Chips By BLOOMBERG NEWS Published: April 18, 2012 Recommend Twitter Linkedin Sign In to E-Mail Print Reprints Share Close Digg Reddit Tumblr Permalink Qualcomm, the largest maker of mobile phone semiconductors, reported earnings that exceeded Wall Street’s expectations on Wednesday, but it also forecast disappointing sales and profit for the current quarter as it increases spending to improve output of new chips for smartphones. The San Diego-based company estimated that sales for its third fiscal quarter, ending in June, would be $4.45 billion to $4.85 billion. Analysts on average had estimated $4.81 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Qualcomm forecast net income of 67 cents to 73 cents a share, compared with the average prediction of 77 cents. Qualcomm’s operating expenses surged 41 percent to $3.43 billion in its second fiscal quarter, outpacing sales gains, as the company spent more on production to meet demand for new types of advanced chips. Qualcomm cannot get enough supply from its existing manufacturer and is seeking additional output, said its chief executive, Paul E. Jacobs. Daniel Berenbaum, an analyst at MKM Partners, said, “Qualcomm needs to think strategically about its foundry partners and about its foundry supply.” For its second quarter, which ended on March 25, Qualcomm reported net income of $2.23 billion, or $1.28 a share, compared with $999 million, or 59 cents, a year earlier. Sales rose 28 percent to $4.94 billion. Analysts on average had predicted earnings of $1.10 a share and sales of $4.84 billion. Mobile phone shipments are estimated to reach 1.7 billion in 2012, a gain of 8.2 percent from 2011, according to IDC. Smartphone shipments, a subset of the mobile phone market, will surge 33.5 percent, the market researcher predicts. Qualcomm, like other chip makers, relies on so-called foundries in Taiwan to build its chips. The company is spending to get its latest chips made by new suppliers, Mr. Jacobs said. The shortfall reflects heavy demand and was not caused by manufacturing problems, he said, adding that the discrepancy should be made up by the end of the year. “It’s painful not to be able to supply all of the chips your customers ask for,” Mr. Jacobs said. [Johnny: That should mean pricing power for TSM. UMC looks like it is no longer a relevant fab due to its execution errors the last few years.]

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (47764)	4/19/2012 9:04:46 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 69749

Looks like all the big players of xlf should boost it up. Bac and MS just came in solid as have all the other big players. How long has it been since xlf has contributed to leadership - YEARS!! Bob Energy looks weak - = rotation

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (47764)	4/19/2012 9:42:32 PM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 69749

Hi Johnny - I started tracking iShares Russell 2000 Value Index (IWN) and noticed it broke support today. This might be a good index to add to your daily reviews and it provides a snap shot of a larger population of small cap stocks. The key for me is the amount of downside volume as it begins to fill the gap lower. I expect the $SPX to eventually follow but IWN seems to be a good leading indicator of the general market trend. Hopefully we will test the $SPX 1340 soon so we can set up for a nice extended rally. Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) held support today and I expect this one to fail support soon too (around $14.95). I have been following your XLE comments with interest. I am not too sure where this is going to go, but it looks like it wants to eventually trade lower too. Last year we traded the WTI Crude at the year's high in the last week of April and then a steady fall in the price of crude. Excellent buying opportunities occurred in October 2011 for many of those small E&P companies. I picked up a lot then and sold most of the winners last week. I will be buying more of those at a 50% discount as oil moves lower (maybe with good buys again in October 2012?). The wild card will be some event in Iran. I think that is what is keeping crude above $100/barrel. Great job with the NG updates as I finally saw some divergence in XCO and the NG price. I think it was more options related than some other change in trend. I appreciate your daily reports with your level headed comments. You let the market dictate the trend and your conclusions. Although the call may be a day or two late, it is confirmed by the eventual move. Well done! Keep up the great posts, i now look forward to your observations. The IWN index for me has been a good indicator for the future trend signaling a move/breakout of the $SPX...check it out. EKS