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Technology Stocks : Oracle Corporation (ORCL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: zc66 who wrote (3651)11/24/1997 8:40:00 PM
From: seth thomas  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 19080
 
Yes, I believe they have missed it several times. ALso, it's hard to figure out exactly what expectations, and when they were set.

For example, you have to believe that a 1.0 BB quarter in 8/31/96 sandwiched in between a 1.4 and a 1.3 qtr was not so good.

I'm trying to think of an easy place to track the specifics down but am not being successful.

BTW, Chuck Phillips, the analyst at Morgan Stanley who just changed his estimate, must be some kind of genius if he can predict a revenue shortfall of $16 MM on a $1.6 billion quarter. That's pretty darn granular. Sure is convenient that it's exactly 1%, too.



To: zc66 who wrote (3651)11/25/1997 2:08:00 AM
From: hasbeen101  Respond to of 19080
 
By next June, if ORCL meets the expectations and maintain current PE (49), the stock price would be 54 (49 x 1.10).

It is in my opinion a grave mistake to think that Oracle will always be on a PE of 49. Oracle used to grow at 100% a year; now it's much slower, and still slowing.

Sooner or later Oracle will be on a PE of 25. That would not imply any stock price growth over the next year.

49 and 25 are both possible, but in my opinion 49 is very unlikely one year from now.