Labor group's pro-Falk TV ads vanish
Associated PressMilwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett (from left) is leading in the polls against former Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk, state Sen. Kathleen Vinehout, and Secretary of State Douglas La Follette, shown at a gubernatorial candidate forum recently at the Madison Concourse Hotel.But labor union coalition says it plans to regroup
Public employee unions had everything lined up.
Their nemesis, Gov. Scott Walker, was facing an unprecedented recall election. Their hand-picked candidate, former Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk, came out of the blocks running. Their front group was set to spend millions to help push Falk over the top.
So what went wrong?
Wisconsin for Falk, a coalition of labor groups, has spent an estimated $3 million on statewide TV ads and multiple slick fliers touting Falk's candidacy - all without seeing her gain traction against the Democratic front-runner, Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett.
The most recent public and private polls show Barrett with a double-digit lead.
Then Wisconsin for Falk took the most unexpected step in the race so far.
In the middle of last week - with the primary just over two weeks away - the group went dark. It had no TV spots running anywhere in the state for days, just as talk spread of dissension in the labor community.
To top it off, Walker then said on a Milwaukee radio show what many Democrats and Republicans have concluded: Falk is clearly the weaker of the two top Democrats.
"The unions totally underestimated Barrett in this race," said Brian Nemoir, a Republican political consultant not involved in the recall election. "I've seen nothing that bodes well for Falk or her supporters."
But some labor leaders are vowing to fight to the end.
They say there is still time to change the momentum in the race.
"We're not throwing in the towel," said Rich Abelson, executive director of AFSCME Council 48, which represents county and city employees in the Milwaukee area.
Abelson said turnover in labor's campaign operation represents nothing more than the standard hiring and firings during an election season. No one, he said, has been laid off. Other labor officials, who asked not to be named, said Wisconsin for Falk is aiming to be back on TV as early as Monday.
The hope is that more union money will flow in soon, and the political tide will turn.
But this clearly wasn't the plan.
With the May 8 primary just around the corner, a recent Public Policy Pollingsurvey done for the liberal blog Daily Kos found Barrett with a 14-point lead on Falk in the Democratic primary. The two other Democrats - Secretary of StateDouglas La Follette and Sen. Kathleen Vinehout - were in single digits.
Late last week, Barrett's camp circulated an internal memo showing his private poll conducted Monday and Tuesday of 502 likely Democratic primary voters also had him with a 14-point advantage.
Falk insiders dismissed the numbers, saying Falk was down by only single digits, according to their polls, which were not made public. What's more, they suggested, Barrett has probably peaked two or three weeks before the voters head to the polls.
The spin doesn't seem to be working with some Democrats.
"No one can see a path for victory for Falk right now," said a veteran Democratic campaign insider not affiliated with either campaign. "Absent going in and tearing down Tom Barrett - which no one has expressed a desire to do, based on what I've heard - I don't know how Falk wins."
In an interview with conservative talk show host Mark Belling on Thursday, Walker suggested that he would rather take on Falk. His campaign is running ads critical of Barrett but not the ex-Dane County executive.
"Do you acknowledge that, that Falk's the weaker opponent?" asked Belling, who hosts an afternoon show on WISN-AM (1130).
"Let me explain why I think she is," Walker said. "Because she has clearly staked herself out as being in the pocket of the public employee unions. That has not clearly been attached to Tom Barrett."
Walker, who holds an edge over the two top Democrats in recent polling, accused the Milwaukee mayor of "falling over himself" at union functions. But Walker focused his sharpest criticism at Falk for pledging to veto the next state budget if it doesn't restore collective bargaining for public workers.
"I think her weakness was coming out early and acknowledging that she - and doing, not just acknowledging - that she signed a pledge saying she'd veto any budget that did not include a full repeal of our reforms," Walker said.
A Falk staffer was skeptical of Walker's remarks.
"The only reason he would say that is to hurt Kathleen Falk in the primary, which obviously means he's scared of facing her in the general election," said Scot Ross.
Or the governor could have been saying what he really thinks.
And what a lot of others are thinking.
Michael Vaughn, a spokesman for Wisconsin for Falk, couldn't be reached on why his group had taken the unusual step of vacating the airwaves so close to the election.
Many top Democrats and Republicans speculated that public employee unions were backing away from spending more money on the primary.
"I'm wondering if they're waffling on their bet," said a senior Wisconsin Democrat. "The return on their investment is zero."
Nemoir, the Republican campaign adviser, said he thinks many people, including labor groups, were expecting to see the same tepid Milwaukee mayor who lost to Walker in the 2010 general election.
Barrett seemed to change, Nemoir said, when officials with AFSCME and the Wisconsin Education Association Council met with him in late December and tried unsuccessfully to force him to stay out of the race.
"They turned nice guy Tom into angry Tom," Nemoir said. "He has an edge to him that we haven't seen before."
Many will want to see that before they believe it.
But with Barrett holding a double-digit lead late in the primary, some in the labor community apparently think it's time to end the chilly relationship with the Milwaukee mayor. WEAC has battled with Barrett since he proposed the mayoral takeover of schools, and local AFSCME officials have objected to his handling of the city budget.
"It would be fair to say that we have received numerous overtures, over the past few days in particular, from labor leaders who want to let Tom know that they will be with him in the general election," contended Phil Walzak, spokesman for Barrett
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