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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Keith Feral who wrote (132523)	4/30/2012 9:44:44 AM
From: Moonray	Respond to of 213172

I think estimates for the iPhone 5 launch will support something closer to 50 million iPhones per quarter when all the other carriers are added. You saw this? Message 28114749 o~~~ O

To: Keith Feral who wrote (132523)	4/30/2012 11:19:06 AM
From: Moonray	Respond to of 213172

Apple analyst: China is adding 10 to 12 million 3G subs per mos. tech.fortune.cnn.com o~~~ O

To: Keith Feral who wrote (132523)	4/30/2012 11:43:50 AM
From: XoFruitCake	1 Recommendation Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 213172

China Mobile get added. I think estimates for the iPhone 5 launch will support something closer to 50 million iPhones per quarter when all the other carriers are added. That would encompass almost all of last quarter's revenues and earnings. I also think the 50 million in 4Q12 is a doable number, but the question is how many Iphone can Apple sell in 1Q13. If we looked back at our current quarter number, 4Q11 sold 37 million iphone and depleted the channel by 1.8 million units. In 1Q12, Apple sell 35 million Iphone but part of that was added 2.6 million iphone to the channel. And China sales looks to be in the range of between 5 to 7 million Iphone (working backward from the revenue increase using about 600ish we can get a rough estimate. If 5 to 7 does not look right, we can change the number but the conclusion seems to be the same). So the real sale to the rest of the world ex China in 1Q looks to be 35-2.6-6 (take the mid point of 5 to 7million unit in China)=26.4 million unit or roughly 28 to 29% drop off. The really fast rollout in 4S (and in some way Ipad and probably iphone 5) move sales from future quarter into the launch quarter and my guess is that we will start seeing very lumpy sales number going forward with this fast rollout strategy. It is not good for stock price nor managing the manufacturing base. It reinforce the idea that Apple is a cyclical company instead of a growth company and does not deserve a premium P/E mulitiple. The more near term problem is how many Iphone sales will there be in 2Q12 (our current quarter)? We don't have any new country to launch 4S any more. All the initial pend up demand around the world are met already.. The bearish side of me think that we may have a similar drop in demand and we are looking at 24-25 million Iphone ((35-2.6)*0.75). The bullish side of me think that China Telecom only have one month to sell 4S, may be some of the pend up sales will be in 2Q and we can see 28 to 30 million 4S. I cannot see anything about 30 million Iphone sales now given Apple sales number in 1Q11. The drop off of sales in territory that launched in 4Q 11 is just too much.. I had not work through the number yet, but my guess is that in our current quarter, earning will come much closer to management projection than in 1Q12 (and we are really saved by the increase margin which no one seems to able to predict. I don't think anyone know if NAND and mobile DRAM price will drop as much this Q or not. That make projecting the earning a crape shot this Q).