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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marc ultra who wrote (56141)	5/2/2012 6:15:28 PM
From: FJB	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95531

The economy appears to have had zero growth with an appropriate deflater in the first quarter. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Once again the BEA has used "deflaters" that will strain the credibility of the public, especially if they buy gasoline. To correct the "nominal" data into "real" numbers the BEA assumed that the annualized inflation rate during 1Q-2012 was 1.54%. As a reminder, lower "deflaters" cause the reported "real" growth rates to increase -- and once again very low seasonally adjusted BEA inflation "deflaters" have been the headline number's best friend. If the raw "nominal" numbers were instead "deflated" by using the seasonally corrected CPI-U calculated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for the same time period, nearly the entire headline growth rate vanishes -- and the resulting growth rate would have been a minuscule 0.08% with "real final sales" contracting. And real per capita disposable income actually shrank during the quarter -- even using the BEA's optimistic "deflaters." Real-world households likely felt the pinch even more. Among the notable items in the report: -- The contribution to the annualized growth rate for consumer expenditures for goods improved to 1.47%, up 0.18% from the 1.29% for the fourth quarter of 2011. Although this number remains modest by "recovery" standards, it has been trending upward for the past several quarters. -- The contribution made by consumer services also improved (to 0.57%), but it also remains anemic by "recovery" standards. -- The growth rate contribution from private fixed investments dropped to 0.18% -- losing over a half-percent relative to the fourth quarter of 2011 and 1.34% from the third quarter of 2011. -- The contribution from inventories (0.59% annualized) dropped significantly from the 1.81% reported for 4Q-2011. This drop in inventory building was inevitable, although it still represents nearly a quarter of the headline number. -- The reported drag on GDP growth from contracting expenditures by governments moderated somewhat at -0.60% (about a quarter of a percent less than the -0.84% reported for 4Q2011). -- The annualized contribution to the growth rate from exports rose to 0.73% (from 0.37% in the prior quarter). -- Imports are now removing -0.74% from the growth rate of the overall economy, slightly worse than the -0.63% recorded during 4Q2011. -- The annualized growth rate of "real final sales of domestic product" rose to 1.61%, but it is still a 1.55% below the +3.16% reported for the third quarter of 2011. If this number is accepted at face value (and not as a consequence of "deflaters" playing havoc with inventory valuations) it still indicates a much weaker economy than is conveyed in the headline number. -- Real per-capita disposable income shrank at an annualized -0.27% rate during the quarter (from $32,699 per capita to $32,677 per capita) -- and it remains lower than it was 5 quarters ago. consumerindexes.com

To: marc ultra who wrote (56141)	5/2/2012 6:20:36 PM
From: Ian@SI	1 Recommendation Respond to of 95531

I believe this is the 18th recession they've predicted which hasn't happened. They don't seem to be much better than most bears at calling recessions.

To: marc ultra who wrote (56141)	5/2/2012 8:54:34 PM
From: robert b furman	1 Recommendation Respond to of 95531

Hi Marc, I remember watching their calls in 2008.They kept being negative and right - it was like watching a train wreck in slow motion. They've nailed the rest of the world except the US and asia. Still very good credibility - no one boasts perfection. Bob

To: marc ultra who wrote (56141)	5/3/2012 11:03:38 AM
From: Kirk ©	6 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95531

"Personally I don't think there's any point in thinking up reasons or excuses for them, they were simply dead wrong and made a terrible call that was was very damaging to those who believed in them." Actually, I disagree. I follow their indicators VERY CLOSELY and am friends with Lakshman. Look at my chart of WLI vs GDP at ECRI's WLI Moves Higher; Q1 GDP Positive Due To Deficit Spending It peaked early last year and they predicted a slowdown about a year ago near the top in 2011 BEFORE a 22% bear market. See: Two Bear Markets Missed in Half a Decade for my calculation and graph showing we just exited a 2011 bear market. Check out the chart here June 3, 2011 " ECRI's Weekly Leading Index Falls Again; Economy to Slow Further in Coming Months" This is where they predicted a slowdown... the S&P was near its 2011 highs... My own personal and professional portfolios are within spitting distance of RECORD ALL TIME HIGHS. (They hit all time highs before the recent pullback.) I can't say using ECRI data has hurt me at all and I think it has helped me avoid the sharks telling people to be fully invested at the tops who had no ammo to buy the declines. BTW, just because the statistics don't show high unemployment, the phrase is "you haven't seen nothing yet" is correct if you look at -> how many college graduates are moving back in with parents because they can't find jobs, how -> how many workers in their 40s and 50s were let go and replaced by younger, cheaper to insure and willing to work at 1/3 lower pay at one of the largest employers in the country... BANKS! -> how many illegals have left CA or stopped coming here since there is no work. -> how many kids don't even graduate high school... not sure if they ever enter the work force. It is a national disgrace, even if a good percentage are here only because their parents are illegals who came her to have kids to get a free education. Without massive deficit spending to be paid by the generations that will follow us... we'd be in a depression U.S. Borrows 53.7 Cents Of Every Dollar Spent In March So... maybe YOU took a look at their great record of success at the wrong time and got too bearish on stocks MONTHS AFTER they predicted a slowdown? That is not what their advice is for. It is for institutions and people looking to start new businesses. I don't think last fall was a great time to start a new business... and the large companies are returning cash to shareholders rather than invest in jobs and growth as they agree with ECRI... so their share prices are going up but not due to great economic growth.