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To: Sycamore who wrote (5344)11/25/1997 9:47:00 PM
From: qdog  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 11888
 
Pennzoil. And they enhance it by 3-D and still were optimistic. That is in the Caspian Sea itself.

Look, siesmic is a wonderful tool the industry uses, but it's not a holy grail. The ONLY guarantee is drilling the well. Yes, I was involved with a prospect that was siesmic by Russian data. It was evaluated and confirm; yet it yield not much when drilled. Siesmic is a wonderful science, BUT it not the final answer. The industry still has a 1 out 3 success rate in drilling. That means 1 producer for every 3 wells drilled. Then there is the actual flow rate of that producer. IF it's only flowing a 1000 barrels a day, then you are drilling 100 wells to achieve 100,000 bpd production. There is a intrinsic cost to all this. Naturally if it's a 10,000 bpd well then we are talking only 10 wells. In the long run, which is cheaper to maintain and cost effective?????

In other words it breaks down to 33% chance of finding something. Now break it down for yourself.