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Biotech / Medical : Oxford Health Plan (OXHP) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Christopher White who wrote (268)	11/25/1997 9:56:00 AM
From: Michael Burry	Respond to of 2068

Christopher, <<how much the AR will contribute is really an open question or in other words, how much much of the AR is collectable and how much is smoke and mirrors? VL has OXHP with about $5/share of AR as of 6/30/97. Perhaps only 1%, or perhaps 50% is uncollectable>> You are confusing AR of this company with the AR of a typical manufacturing or technology product company. As an insurance company, AR is really premiums receivable. The "uncollectable" portion of premiums is really neglible. This differs from say USRX or others that stuff the channel with product and will never collect. Insurance is much more regulated, and Oxford can't just 'stuff the channel' with premium bills purposefully. In fact, if they do it is a major violation. This is what happened witht the computer mess, and what made Oxford have to take charges against AR this past quarter, which were meant to ensure that the AR number presented is indeed collectable. It is really not a valid argument to say only 1-50% of the AR is collectable. BTW, you don't need to use outdated Value Line #'s for most recent AR - just use Yahoo biz news to look at the latest release. In any case, I agree this is quite obviously not a stock you want on margin. The story will take a while to develop, and it is possible that it will dip even further before it rises. After all, once a momentum stock... Good Investing, Mike