To: Gary Wisdom who wrote (37384 ) 11/25/1997 10:13:00 AM From: Tom Carroll Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 58324
RE: **Back on Topic** Mea culpa, and the HiFD issue Gary and all, Okay, I'll own up to being a big cause of all the fluff. Sorry. I only have two weak excuses to offer in defense, one being that I'm scrupulous about putting "OT" in my header if the message is off topic, and the other being that the thread has been boring lately. What's there to say about Iomega other than that it's growing steadily and the Zip is showing every sign of becoming the standard? Well, there's a little to say. Off-thread, Jack Knutson asked me about protecting his long investment with some puts following Darrell's cryptic message about a dive to 17. Here was my response to him, which he encouraged me to post here for others to ponder: It's your money, of course, but I'm staying put at the moment. The Nomai thing just doesn't worry me at all. There's no way those folks are going to put any serious dent into Iomega. As I said on the thread, though, I AM a little concerned about this Sony thing, and the TEAC announcement today adds to that concern. Why, I ask myself, would Sony do this HiFD thing at the same time that they're selling Zip disks under license and also including Zips in their boxes? They must know that it's going to take a real winner of a device to unseat the Zip. There are only a few options. One is that they're quite certain that they've got just such a winner of a device. Two is that they think the thing will be useful for cameras (i.e. as the replacement for the 1.44MB floppy in the Mavica camera) and other things but will not unseat the Zip in PCs. Three is that this is all bluster of some sort that I can't fathom. And four is that Sony is one whole hell of a lot stupider than I think they are. Of those four, I'm afraid number one is the most plausible, and they're being strangely low-key about the whole thing, which is a weird way to introduce this. I fear that they're certain enough about its promise that they're ramping it up a bit before springing it on the market, to be sure there are plenty out there and the price is right. If I'm right about that, and of course that's a big if, then this could challenge the Zip and affect the price. On the other hand, eleven million Zips, and another million every month while we wait for the HiFD, plus lotsa OEM arrangements under Iomega's belt, constitute a formidable wall for Sony to scale. In addition, I suspect that Iomega can retaliate with a cheaper Zip or a higher-capacity Zip or a combination of both. So in the long run, I'm still willing to bet my money on Iomega in this competition. In any event, though, I don't see any Sony-induced dip in Iomega's growth curve setting in overnight. This is going to take a few months. It's clear that the institutions aren't dumping the stock in a panic. Nor will they. Consequently, you've got at least a few weeks to make up your mind. Why bother with selling those 40s at a loss and spending the insurance money on puts if you don't have to? Instead, why don't you just think through what strategy of this sort you'll use and then have it all ready to execute without further thought the moment you see some more substantive evidence of a problem than what Darrell has given us? He's not infallible, of course. Please keep up the volume updates, Gary. They're very valuable and informative. If I have anything even remotely valuable of that sort to post, I'll post it, and if not, in deference to thread minimalists like you, I'll shut up for a while. Happy Thanksgiving, all. Cheers, Tom (long IOM)