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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (47863)	5/9/2012 11:21:35 PM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78476

re GPN - a GARP stock (maybe). They have shown 10-15% revenue growth using mix of organic growth and acquisitions. Most of the earnings flow through as FCF (unless you count acquisition expense of course). Past history with security breaches suggest that severe consequences are rate (Heartland had a huge issue in 2008, but survived unscathed even though the stock chart suggest otherwise). This seems to indicate that these payment processors have a moat. I think maybe a first buy at around 40$, looking for a return to 50$ (highly likely if above assumptions are true). The downside tail risk is that GPN is blacklisted and business starts to implode. I am guessing they would be acquired in this case to restore credibility. Max. Downside risk to maybe 20$/share. It depends on the probability that you assign to each outcome and there are lot's of shades in between. Right now, I think it's a so so bet. I do like the business however.