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Politics : President Barack Obama -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Road Walker who wrote (113337)	5/10/2012 11:11:03 AM
From: RetiredNow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 149317

From your post: About That 2012 Recession Call In spite of all the above, I happen to like the ECRI recession call. Yes, I am biased, but it is hard to find anyone who is not. I was way early in 2006 when the yield curve inverted, and I was early again this time, but never emphatic as was economist David Rosenberg with his June 13, 2011 " 99% chance of US recession by 2012" To go out on a limb, I think GDP in 2012 is going to hugely surprise on the downside, and 1st Quarter GDP may be as low as zero to .5%. A negative number (or more likely a revised negative number) would not shock me in the least. If so, there is still room for the ECRI to be correct. The ECRI needs (by its own admission) a recession by mid-year to be correct. It will be interesting to see how much they twist and turn a few months from now. However, even if GDP tanks big time, the NBER (the official designator of recessions) may not acknowledge the recession for another six months to a year. In general, delayed NBER calls explain why the ECRI can also get away with late calls. However, it fails to explain why the ECRI stuck its neck out so early this time. The most likely explanation is as described earlier: "mind over indicators". I don't care that much, recognizing that perfection is simply impossible. However, it does pose a big problem to the ECRI because they pretend they are perfect even though facts prove otherwise.

To: Road Walker who wrote (113337)	5/10/2012 11:23:00 AM
From: RetiredNow	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 149317

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