To: Mr. Stocks who wrote (587 ) 11/25/1997 9:24:00 PM From: Zeev Hed Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 926
Mr. Stocks (by the way, before I start my disertation, I never know how to address you, your majesty stocks, or socks or whatever (VBG), very impersonal, I was actually going to say, why should I respond, but, let it go at this, anonymity is your right, it is just that I have a better grasp of how I need to say what I am going to say when a real name rather than a sock is before me.) As for why I expect a weakness next weak. Mostly because I expect the rest of this week to be somewhat more positive. Starting tomorrow, many of the proffesional players that help keep the market "efficient" will be gone on an extended vacation. The players will be people watching CNBC, CNNFN and other vacationers that usually are not involved with efficient market. This group has a natural bias toward positivism. Coupling this with a lull in the string of bad news from the rim will make for a feel good atmosphere. Starting with early next week, the reality of the impact of amajor devaluation on the already weak balance sheets in the rim (particularly Korea, Thailand and Malaysia) will become apparent. The major result of this devaluation will be drastic reduction of the asset side (usually accounted in local currencies) and increase in the liabilities side (a lot of which is denominated in international currencies such as the Yen and Dollar). For a large number of the large corporations this will put a dent on their ability to further borrow, as a matter of fact they may face accelerated repayment schedules of their heavy debt. Not only are some of these entities going to collapse under that weight, but most importantly some are going cut out a lot of the capital equipment in the line (thus major weakness in the semi cap and some of the telecom infrastructure as well as the networking stock). Without the high tech sector in a bullish trend, we may see the SOX breaking the 285 -290 area and that may signal another leg down for the high tech. Tax selling of the weaker sisters will add to the fire. This will bring us to about the middle of the month, when I beieve the traditional year end strength will reestablish itself. Zeev