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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mr.Gogo who wrote (47892)	5/10/2012 3:03:34 PM
From: NikhilJog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78753

Gogo - thats an interesting observation. Japan is still pretty darn expensive. Plus the inflationary policy. they would be better off, if they increased rates a little bit... what makes u think there is deflation in japan?

To: Mr.Gogo who wrote (47892)	5/10/2012 3:42:08 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78753

OT. So far there has been inflation in certain sectors (oil, agriculture) and deflation in others (housing, obviously, but also natgas). I see no reason why similar bifurcation won't continue although sectors could change. natgas and housing are unlikely to deflate much more, since both are selling under replacement rate in some cases. Oil might deflate if natgas can replace some of it. Agri could deflate a bit too. Wage inflation is unlikely in most fields for now although it is visible in high tech (again). Wage inflation may come back if wages inflate fast in cheap countries and production/services are back-sourced to US. Medical costs are likely to continue inflating, since there is no good solution suggested to fix it. It is not clear that the government (and private?) models are well equipped to deal with all of this. There is also global environment to consider. Although people are well aware of US$ printing which may lead to debasing (Clownbuck, anyone? ;)), it's not clear whether these people account for other currencies printing quite a lot too. If everyone prints, do the commodities inflate while everything else deflates/stays constant? It is unclear IMHO. :) There's also population growth, which is still inflationary in USA (growth above replacement limit), but is becoming deflationary in Japan and soon Europe. If population shrinks, fewer services and products are needed, which is deflationary.