SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Spekulatius who wrote (47910)5/11/2012 12:40:45 AM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 78464
 
AVP - I took a look. Like you said in the previous post, the execution sucks all over. They should take the buyout, since they don't seem to be able to run the company. But they probably won't and then stock will collapse even more.

Assuming they don't take the offer, the stock is not cheap. Even if they earned 600M like they did in 2010, the stock would be at 15P/E. But they won't earn 600M this year, not even close. So...

Do you think Q1 was seasonal aberration or is it an indication of the things to come? Do you have high confidence in the new CEO?

It might be a good investment if either we were sure they will take the bid or if we knew it will turn around. Otherwise it's a crapshoot.



To: Spekulatius who wrote (47910)5/11/2012 8:00:21 AM
From: benbuffett  Respond to of 78464
 
Re- AVP In this one with you Clownbuck. Lets hope Buffet can move this deal along.



To: Spekulatius who wrote (47910)5/11/2012 8:32:16 AM
From: Bocor  Respond to of 78464
 
Still in it. Like you, waiting for a slightly higher bid that COTY. Bought it low, so I am still up, but I can't believe that moronic Board doesn't get it. Forget where the puck has been, look at where it is going, and AVP puck is going the way of FTR, dividend and all.



To: Spekulatius who wrote (47910)5/11/2012 8:42:09 AM
From: Bocor  Respond to of 78464
 
LETTER FROM COTY INC. (dated May 9, 2012)

Board of Directors of Avon Products, Inc.
1345 A venue of the Americas
New York, NY 10105

Dear Members of the Board:

Since we made public our non-binding proposal to acquire Avon for cash (the "proposal") more than a month ago, we have spent significant time listening to your shareholders and analyzing public information, including your most recent quarterly results. We continue to believe that our proposal would provide compelling value to Avon's shareholders relative to a difficult and uncertain multi-year turnaround on a stand-alone basis. The combination of Avon and Coty would create a global beauty company with broader innovation, branding and execution capabilities to benefit its customers, representatives and associates around the world.

We have been disappointed by the current stalemate. As you know, we contacted Avon last week in an effort to break this deadlock. We indicated that we were prepared to engage in non-public discussions and discuss an increase to our proposal of $23.25 if substantiated through a three-week diligence process.

We remain keenly focused on understanding Avon's operational and financial challenges, evidenced by your disappointing first quarter results and outlook, as well as your recent credit ratings downgrades. We need to confirm our synergy estimates, the availability of which will be critical to our final valuation and the reinvestment required to implement a turnaround of Avon. In particular, we are very interested in understanding the components of your SG&A expense line item as we evaluate how to increase economic opportunities for your representatives relative to controlling overall corporate spending. We also need to better understand your ongoing Foreign Corrupt Practices Act investigation and litigation, and what it will cost to address operational and financial problems and these liabilities.

We are prepared to sign a confidentiality agreement with standstill provisions that would restrict us from taking further public steps in seeking to acquire Avon so long as you agree in good faith to provide us with requested information on a timely basis. As we have consistently indicated, we and our financing partners will only pursue this proposal on a consensual basis, including having conducted due diligence. Our equity financing sources will include our principal shareholder Joh. A. Benckiser, BOT Capital Partners and certain of its limited partners, and Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Our debt financing will be provided by JPMorgan Securities.

Upon signing the confidentiality agreement, we anticipate we would need only several weeks to conduct expedited due diligence of Avon and finalize the terms of a possible transaction. We have attached to this letter a list of priority diligence items that we believe would enable us to form a definitive view of value beyond where we have arrived based on public information.

When we contacted you again last week, you advised us that Avon's Board of Directors was not prepared to engage in any discussions regarding any revised proposal until Avon had completed a strategic and operational internal review with its new CEO. While we understand Avon's interest in conducting such a review given the significant challenges and uncertainties described in your recent analyst call, this review can and should be done in parallel with exploring the strategic alternative of selling the company so the Board may compare both proposals side by side and make the right choice for Avon shareholders.

In any event, we will not keep our proposal open for the several months that you say you need to conduct your internal review. We and our equity sources are prepared to work until May 31, 2012 to see if we have a mutually agreeable basis for a transaction. If you are prepared to enter into discussions, we can, prior to this expiration date, determine whether there is an opportunity to provide significant and certain immediate value to Avon's shareholders.

In our final effort to move forward with discussions, we are revising our proposal to $24.75 subject to due diligence and the other conditions described below. This price represents a premium of over 36% to the original undisturbed closing price on March 6, 2012 before our initial proposal of$22.25 and also represents over $1 billion of incremental value to your shareholders, despite a materially weakened outlook for your business. Given the challenges facing your business, we believe the premium is even higher when considering your potential stock price in the absence of a possible transaction. If in our work we find considerably more positives than negatives, we would be prepared to propose a higher price; if we find more negatives than positives, it would be difficult to justify our revised proposal. If after due diligence our final proposal were to be unacceptable to you, we will simply indicate so in a mutually agreeable statement and part company as friends.

In order to end the uncertainty around this transaction for both your organization and ours, we request that you respond to our revised proposal by close of business on Monday, May 14th. If you choose not to engage with us, we will withdraw our proposal. Our intention is to submit this letter and our revised proposal to Avon's Board on a confidential basis. However, if you do not enter into discussions with us by May 14th, we will have to inform the public markets of the circumstances of our withdrawal.

This letter and our proposal and revised proposal constitute a preliminary, non-binding indication of interest to acquire the outstanding shares of Avon, and our revised proposal is being submitted based on the understanding that it is not an offer that is capable of being accepted and that there will be no binding agreement between us or any commitment or obligation on either party with respect to the revised proposal or a possible transaction unless and until a definitive agreement is executed by Avon and Coty. We reserve the right to discontinue discussions regarding, and withdraw, our revised proposal at any time. Our revised proposal is subject to customary conditions, including, among other things, our satisfaction with the results of due diligence in our sole discretion, the negotiation of a mutually satisfactory definitive agreement, financing and the approval of the negotiated terms of a transaction by our Board of Directors.

I sincerely hope you will agree that your shareholders' interests will be best served by meeting with us to discuss our proposal.

With best regards,
Bart Becht

SOURCE Avon Products, Inc.