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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Spekulatius who wrote (47930)	5/13/2012 10:38:47 PM
From: richardred	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78462

That's a good thing to hear. Frankly they had to address it because the financing has the backing of some serious investors. They being the Benckiser./Buffett connection. With them involved, IMO it wouldn't be hard to find a consortium of banks or investment bankers to lend this deal through. That's if, and a BIG IF , AVON agrees. Avon said they need a week. It is possible they hire investment bankers and try and shop the company around for a White Knight. Just a guess, but possibly someone like KKR that has experience with big market cap companies. Coty did say they wanted a friendly deal. A big ? if they would pursue a hostile and take the offer to shareholders. Richmont is a big unknown at this point. If they are truly serious interested in buying.. They will have to wait in the wings for now, as they most likely would have to line up some serious funding and leverage themselves to the hilt. Best case scenarios. Avon accepts the Coty offer. The rumors of the past were true. L'Oreal , P&G, UL are interested in this company. However,No way that hypothetical offer would be close to one of today. Also It was a British paper. Many witch are well known for spreading unfounded rumors. Message 27756364 Still a chance Richmont or someone else come in with a surprise bid at some point. Remember-:Alticor Inc/Amway fail in 1989. IMO- Now their in a position of power to try again. IMO most shareholders would tender Upon a reasonable offer this time. It would be much better for shareholders, instead of waiting for a turnaround. Worst case-Avon rejects the bid, sighting a generic statement, and moves on with Mrs. McCoy. If that happens I think AJ will be in charge of growing the China business for the company. She has been with the company a long time and did have some early success. China IMO has the most potential and Avon does have a foot in the door. Shareholders also still don't know the outcome of the bribe scandal. FWIW past YH comments 6 months ago before a bid RE:My past thoughts on potential Fines >Keys to takeover are, what's in it for them and why buy something with the justice department issues not resolved. Not when it's a hostile takeover. However golden parachutes apply. IMO I see a possible suitor doing some DD and expecting a minimal fine. As a percentage of total sales. Avon does very little sales in China now. I'm guessing the fines could be comparable to the fines paid by TriWest Healthcare Alliance ( 10 million). If I'm close to being right. I see it being a positive for the stock. Link below. Of coarse I could be wrong. usatoday.com RE:Celebrity CEO regardless: Jung may eventually be removed. I agree, they just brought a new guy in from Unilever. He turned some of their brands into blockbusters. He's now in charge of IMO of Avon's most important divisions(Latin America )IMO maybe a possible successor? For me anyway Avon is a buy. Not a strong buy, but a buy. I'm hoping the SEC problem can get solved and Miss Jungs steps down. Both would be a positive catalyst. Meanwhile I'll take the solid dividend for the wait even if it's a long one. I reiterate-IMO-Fundamentally I think the company is holding it own, and the Latin American Market is a bright spot. I don't know how much longer Andra can last. IMO her departure will be a positive catalyst for the stock. Who's knows, she might look to sell the company for her legacy, on her hypothetical way out. IMO Miss Jung is high maintenance in terms of her makeup. I wonder if she actually just uses Avon products? If she does. She should do the late Dave Thomas routine of staring in a company commercial. Andra, I'll use a takeoff of the L'Oréal Phrase. "ARE YOU WORTH IT" Women-owned business is booming, American Express study shows By George Chamberlin , Executive Editor Friday, September 16, 2011 sddt.com.