To: Sycamore who wrote (5354 ) 11/25/1997 12:58:00 PM From: Sycamore Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 11888
Subject: RANDOM THOUGHTS (by F. Bouhafa) Date: Mon, Nov 24, 1997 21:49 EST From: Bouhafa Message-id: <19971125025000.VAA23400@ladder01.news.aol.com> KEVHOME's analysis of the significance of today's "Contract" signed by MSUP with the Government of Kazakhstan was excellent. Keith Bossey of Robert Cohen & Co. stated that "some of the risks have been removed from an investment in AIPN stock". I would go a bit further. In my opinion, this announcement removes most of the risk. As I have stated before, the Govrernment of Kazakhstan would never have granted this ''Contract" to MSUP unless it was very confident that a major with the resources necessary to develop the concession had all but signed a Joint Venture agreement. I believe we will see such a JV before the year is out. At that point the fundamentals of AIPC will be radically changed and George will be ready to go out on the road to tell the investment community where he intends to take his company. This ageement, which virtually guarantees the issuance of a Production Agreement to one or more of AIPC's suitors, stands as the very best argument against those who have claimed that AIPN was a stock with only downward potential. Anyone who continues to make such an argument either can't read or has a hopeless agenda. This agreement underlines the fact that AIPC has very influential partners able to strike favorable deals with their government on our behalf and on behalf of their own interests. Someone once said only half-jokingly that MSUP is the government. This document gives credence to that observation. George Faris should be congratulated for having mastered the "art of the deal" described by an oil industry consultant as an essential skill if one wishes to do business in KAZ. The other thing that caught my attention was in the actual report by Keith Bossey which was omitted from the news story. It seems that the company is anticipating calling in the warrants and "is currently negotiating with brokerage firms to handle this transaction... negotiations should be completed no later than year end". Bossey states that for this to happen the stock must trade at $8 for 15 consecutive trading days. According to one of the 10Q's the stock must trade above $8 for 20 consecutive trading days and then AIPC must give 30 days notice. Since it appears that the company will not extend the warrants beyond the March 1 deadline, I think we can estimate the time period during which the company sees the stock trading above $8. Basically we are talking about 2 months prior to the March 1 deadline. The stock trades above $8 for one month and then the company gives a month notice that warrants will be called in prior to their expiration date of March 1. Bottom line, somebody at AIPC seems to believe that the stock will be trading above $8 first thing in January. I hope they are right and I think they are. All of us should feel very comfortable tonight. This story is real and it is not a typical "oil industry" story. Many months ago I was warning those who did not believe that this story was anything other than "hype" that they needed to forget about how things have been done in the oil business in the past. I always believed that there was something unique about this situation that, in order to be understood, required a sensitivity to the geo-political context. Today's agreement reinforces that view. If I am not mistaken, Gary told a shareholder that AIPC officials had "become Kazaks" and that is very telling. There is much more to talk about but I will leave it at that for now. Cheers..Faris