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Strategies & Market Trends : BAK - Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zoso_17 who wrote (2678)	5/15/2012 2:02:36 PM
From: XoFruitCake	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3249

Re: NE continues to slide So much for my "buy below 35 and sell above 40" trading idea. I think right now macro is asserting itself. Just like 2008/2009, nothing matter if macro does not head to the right direction. As far as I can piece together by watching 24 hours bloomberg/cnbc/cnn (slight exaggeration but not too far), the headline is Greece leaving Europe and the Spain/Italy/Portugual run is going to happen. China slow down is going to hit all natural resource play. And JPM fiasco hit the financial sector at exactly the wrong time. I would love to own Total here.. But it looks like there are more shoes to drop, so it is hard to go in front of the train and take the punishment...

To: Zoso_17 who wrote (2678)	5/15/2012 2:12:44 PM
From: thatsnotluck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3249

Re: NE continues to slide well at this point i am not able to say anything to anyone. it has been a very difficult year. i did not mind underperforming when the market was charging ahead, but assumed incorrectly i would do better than the market when it turned down. that was the plan anyway. did not work. my latest scheme to reduce my tax burden by losing money was a purchase this morning of some ATPG bonds. i have been out of ATPG for several weeks. i am getting beat up on all my other O&G things, and it just does not seem right to not also get beat up by ATPG. bonds very active today. when i went to FINRA to see my trade, it was on the third page already. amazing how much the bonds have dropped in a week. common has not so well either. the preferred has held up more than would seem justified by the action in bonds and common. seems like the preferred is at least 5 points and more like 10 points rich at last trade, compared to last time the common and bonds were around this level, IIRC.

To: Zoso_17 who wrote (2678)

5/15/2012 11:05:05 PM

From: Covenant

Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3249

Re: NE continues to slide

I'm trying to figure out the best strategy for NE. I'm usually not very big on options, but NE is closing in on the bottom of its range, so I'm trying to figure out the best strike price(s) / strategy. I'm a bull naturally...

The drillers should trade according to day rates and demand, but instead they trade on the price of oil. It doesn't make sense but that is the way it is.

I think oil will see the high $120s again sometime in the next year and a half, and that translates into NE somewhere in the $40s if history repeats itself yet again. Unfortunately, the next 6 months is more important, and the politicians have declared war on speculators. This is putting downward pressure on oil prices several weeks before the Iran boycott sprouts fangs. Other Iran issues such as a bombing would cause an upward spike. This could happen anytime. Oil investors are in the unenviable position of hurrying up and waiting.

CALLS							JAN 18 '14			PUTS
Trade	Quote	Open Interest	Volume	Net Change	Last	Bid	Ask	Strike Price	Bid	Ask	Last	Net Change	Volume	Open Interest	Quote	Trade
Trade	Details	0	0	0.00	19.44	12.65	14.85	20.00	1.56	1.83	1.60	0.04	3	50	Details	Trade
Trade	Details	0	0	0.00	0.00	10.95	12.65	23.00	2.37	2.65	2.13	0.00	0	23	Details	Trade
Trade	Details	15	0	0.00	14.20	9.65	11.25	25.00	3.10	3.30	3.25	0.55	2	75	Details	Trade
Trade	Details	48	0	0.00	13.90	7.85	9.40	28.00	4.15	4.50	2.82	0.00	0	20	Details	Trade
Trade	Details	66	0	0.00	10.10	7.35	7.90	30.00	5.05	5.40	4.00	0.00	0	86	Details	Trade
Trade	Details	16	0	0.00	6.33	6.00	6.40	33.00	6.55	6.95	5.00	0.00	0	48	Details	Trade
Trade	Details	146	9	-0.13	5.37	5.15	5.50	35.00	7.70	8.10	7.07	0.00	0	91	Details	Trade
Trade	Details	30	0	0.00	5.15	4.35	4.70	37.00	8.90	9.40	8.09	0.00	0	20	Details	Trade
Trade	Details	126	3	-0.25	3.45	3.50	3.75	40.00	11.05	11.30	9.59	0.00	0	32	Details	Trade
Trade	Details	1	2	-1.00	2.85	2.96	3.20	42.00	12.25	12.90	0.00	0.00	0	0	Details	Trade
Trade	Details	38	0	0.00	2.39	2.28	2.51	45.00	14.40	15.15	0.00	0.00	0	0	Details	Trade
Trade	Details	34	0	0.00	1.97	1.80	2.13	47.00	15.60	17.45	0.00	0.00	0	0	Details	Trade
Trade	Details	102	0	0.00	1.59	1.32	1.57	50.00	18.10	19.95	0.00	0.00	0	0	Details	Trade
Trade	Details	145	0	0.00	1.10	0.77	1.00	55.00	22.50	24.25	25.35	0.00	0	30	Details	Trade