To: Whipsaw who wrote (1560 ) 11/25/1997 4:08:00 PM From: Lord Smooth Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 4571
"My take is that he is doing a good job with recent operations, although the share dilution is bothersome. " Despite my positive spin on the warrant issue a few days ago, I agree this is a troublesome issue and is probably one of the largest factors impacting the current price of the stock, in my humble opinion. It seems like Sterling is risking very little capital. However, we have to keep in mind that if there is no gold in the ground, Sterling's warrants are worthlesss. So actually Sterling is assuming great risk at this particular point in time. So, we come back to the same logical conclusion: Sterling believes there is potential in the ground, hence it is risking $9 million over 30 months. Again, to repeat the obvious again, Sterling get's no equity interest until 2.5 years from now. So the warrants offset this part of the agreement for Sterling somewhat. Darlene, your comparisons with other JVs were informative. We should also try to dig up some JVs on the other side of the spectrum, that were great deals. Then we can truly put the BCMD JV deal in persepctive. Despite the implied 6 million share dilution, there is still tremendous upside potential in the stock if BCMD finds ample gold reserves to support a slow rampup to 200,000 ounces of gold per year. I see no reason why BCMD can not emulate GGO within four years, which is a 200,000 ounce producer with 4.5 million ounce reserves and is at a market cap of around $1 billion. Say BCMD shares outstanding become 100 million shares in four years (which at the rate they're going would not be surprising, unfortunately). That still implies a $10 stock in four years. There are a lot of risks up to that price level, however. This four year target assumes that more reserves are discovered and are minable at a good operating cost. It assumes other things, like management is not blown apart in a mining accident, stable POG, etc. I am convinced that there is potential for discovering more reserves. How much, no one knows. But I am a believer, based on research of the area. And I am willing to hold at $1 1/32 until it goes to $10 over the next four years or to negative $10 in the next 12 months. I believe the next two months will be key, with the next Sterling decision in February to provide cash for more equity interest a big key event. Despite BCMD's potential equity dilution in the gold properties in February, it will be a clear sign that Sterling is confident that there is indeed great gold. Next two months is the try out period. I like the risk/reward at $1 1/32. I would have liked to flip in and out of $2 like the next guy, but I know my limitations. I don't know how to trade, and I will never attempt to trade without more experience. It was tempting, seeing the action on the screen, but only experience can tell you how to act in that situation. I strongly believe only professional traders should day trade. I strongly believe that others, like myself, should decide an investment case and make a decision that is at least looks out six months ahead. Choose GTC orders at different levels. Reward/risk is great at current levels. Withing six months, this stock will be $0.06 or $4.00. Arbitrary figures, but you get the point. Thanks for everyones time and research. This is an exciting time to be a BCMD shareholder. Eric X, your comments on hyping should be obvious to all. There are many risks in BCMD stock. Perhaps you would like to take the time to list the fundamental risks rather than the risk of investor stupidity. That would be more helpful if you believe people truly arent' aware of the many risks in this stock. Schopenhauer