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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (56376)	5/19/2012 3:27:44 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95757

The only indicator that has never failed is an inverted yield curve. It hasn't predicted all recessions, but when it inverts we've always had one. None of us is capable of forecasting a recession based on data already available to us. It really does not matter if ECRI can. It does not matter if they are right or wrong.

To: Return to Sender who wrote (56376)	5/19/2012 8:11:25 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	3 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95757

Sam/RtS and others, This past week has seen several divergent evaluations of the future outlook. First, in the semi area, 2 analysts from Needham and JP Morgan have "downgraded" some stocks in the semi area while some analytic firms were upgrading the fundamental outlook for "sales" in 2012. Incidentally, the table just posted of the Group and SOXM(SOX) tables has shown many, many months of pullback in the earnings expectations over the past year or more. Also, the recent table showing earnings by year for the 18 stocks reporting on a CY/FY basis shows essentially no growth in earnings estimates through 2013 compared to the actuals of 2010. That is over 18 months away and is not a recipe for stock price growth. We have the SEMI BtB due out on this coming Tuesday. Based on the previous uptrend of Bookings, I would expect a higher number for April than we had for March. I certainly wouldn't expect a large pullback in the number. The month of May so far has seen a real pullback in the major market indices with acceleration to the downside. Perhaps we get a small bounce this coming week, but that may be just a pause for further declines. RtS has been consistent in outlining what a "technical bottom" would look like. Since the technical situation is so well covered on this thread by many contributors, the question may be asked, what is the fundamental outlook going forward. Fundamentals have also been addressed on this thread, but I think this is where a big problem lies for the market recovering, or finding a bottom to the May decline. First of all, I think the market really got ahead of itself starting with the recovery effort beginning in Oct of last year. Some of the monthly reporting numbers began to improve, however slightly, so the financial press put on a big push as to how a "recovery" was in place. With all the money on the sidelines, and many investors waiting to put that money to work, the upward trend was up and "running", but IMO, while the trend in fundamentals like job creation, etc, was up, it wasn't on a strong enough trajectory to match the enthusiasm of the market. Now the fundamentals have "stalled" or started a downward trend recently. IMO, the market has just realized the error of its ways, and is presently readjusting. We have at least 2 big fundamental drags on the World outlook which will probably take a very long time to fix. One is the huge debt of the European countries and the U.S. debt. This is going to be a drag for a long time, and a way has to be found to reverse the acceleration of the present trend to more debt, and start a payback of the debt. Europe is a "basket case" and who knows what is going to happen there. Another problem is the housing issue in this country. It is beginning to show signs of bottoming(and it better because houses are now essentially being given away compared to their previous values), but it will be a long time before it gets back to "normal values". And before a strong housing demand can be established, people must have good paying jobs. The economy must be re-established to provide jobs and then houses can be sold for higher values again. What all of the above means to me is a long period, many years, of a cyclical stock market. There will be periods like this past October thru April, and now a downtrend in May is taking us down to a new low level before rebounding at some new lower level. We have to learn how to trade this market to make any money. The tables posted on this thread show the action both up and down. We need to learn how to jump on for the ride, both up and down. We will not see the "glory years" of 1999, 2000, and 2001 where 2 to 10 baggers were common, but gains of 50 to 100 percent, both up and down, should be obtainable in this environment. Like all of us, including RtS, I would like see a "real bottom" like we had in 08/09, but that may be a long time coming. I don't see it in the relatively near future unless some catastrophe happens somewhere. Don