InvestmentHouse Weekend Market Summary
investmenthouse.com
- Facebook IPO: Like? No.
- Facebook lackluster trade, NASDAQ issues, more market downside. Not a banner day for stocks or investor confidence.
- Facebook raises $16B, the largest tech IPO ever. Of course, that is just 4 days of the US debt growth.
- Bonds here, bonds there pricing in something not that great.
- Bulls flat, bears creep higher, but after this week they likely converge more.
- After FB, the market still has to face Europe and a truly bad situation.
- Some more downside then an oversold bounce attempt.
Facebook fails to save the market from its downside.
Like? It took two major efforts from the underwriters to hold $38.
I will open with the intraday chart of Facebook. It was a little late in opening, and it sold off immediately. The underwriters stepped in to support it, it rallied into mid-afternoon, and then it sold off in the last hour. It took every scrap of what the underwriters had to close this stock above the IPO price of $38. It closed out at $38.23. There is a doji on the chart. One day and a doji. It went nowhere, and it was considered a disappointment in that it failed to rally to the upside. Maybe this was a mistake by Zuckerberg; maybe it was a mistake by the underwriters and where they wanted to price it. Whatever the case, it was priced at the max, and people wanted to get rid of it. It wanted to dive lower in the afternoon. It took the underwriters to step up and eat the loss. Day one is in the books. Next week we may see the stock fall further, but it depends. We never invest on the first day. We like to wait until it makes its first base, and then we will invest if it shows us the right moves.
Things were not so great. It took two efforts to keep the stock afloat above $38, and then we had issues with NASDAQ. It raised questions about electronic trading once again. A big thumbs down for NASDAQ because it pretty much muffed the largest tech IPO in history. Remember the flash crash problem with the electronic trades that saw the Dow lose 1000 points intraday only to rebound. Basically all retail investors and many other investors threw up their hands and gave up at that point. They figured they could win against the market, but maybe they cannot win against the market if they play that game and buy and hold. That has been the problem for quite some time, not just since the flash crash. This market, and frankly any market around the world, requires that you do not just put blind stops in and hope for the best. We know all about that and will not go that route.
NASDAQ muffs biggest tech IPO in history. Nothing like continuing to assure investors.
NASDAQ did nothing to help investor confidence. That is one of the main problems now. We hear about lack of confidence from businesses in the future, in the economy, and in what the administration will or will not do. The same thing occurs with investors. They will not put their hard-earned money into the market if they feel like they have little control over the outcome. Sure, stock prices go up and they go down, but it is the wild gyrations with no rhyme or reason that has squelched investor enthusiasm. It was not a banner day for the stock, and it was not a banner day for NASDAQ.
DEBT VERSUS CAPITAL
U.S. Debt Increase Per Day: $4 billion
Do the math: the largest tech IPO ever generated only 4 days worth of our national debt increase.
If closed all loopholes, collected all taxes supposedly evaded (I guess that includes Mr. Saverin), raised corporate taxes to 40%, and went back to Clinton-era individual tax rates we would still fall 1.4T short of meeting just the 2012 spending projections.
There is an interesting feature with the largest technology IPO on record. Facebook raised $16B dollars, and the U.S. debt increases by $4B a day. You do the math. The largest tech IPO in history generated only four days' worth of our national debt increase. We could closed all of the loopholes, and we could collect all of the taxes that are supposedly evaded; we could raise corporate taxes to 40%; we could go back to the Clinton-era individual tax rate; and we would still fall $1.4T short of meeting JUST the 2012 spending projections. I say projections because we do not have a budget. Under the Obama administration, we have never had a budget. Obama produces these absurd, pie-in-the-sky budgets that fail to garner one vote in the House or the Senate. We have problems on both sides. No leadership from the White House, no leadership from the Senate, and no real leadership in the House. Although the House has at least tried to pass budgets and has done so, but no one else is taking up the mantle and addressing the hard issues. The point is that even if we raise taxes where they want to, we cannot tax our way out of it. Even if we confiscated everything that the Fortune 500 companies made a year, we simply could not cover our debt.
We have serious problems, but we apparently do not have serious people in Washington, D.C. if the largest IPO in technology covers merely four days of our debt increase. Those are mind-boggling numbers. We have a bunch of children and fools who are supposedly leading this country. I can only hope that in November we toss everyone out and start over again.
Looking at the action on the day, there was yet another modest bounce to the upside on the open. Last night my query was whether Facebook would be the savior of the market. Obviously it was not. Whatever faux enthusiasm there was at the open quickly dissipated, and stocks sold off. They managed to bounce when Facebook opened, and they sold off big time late in the session for, once again, losses across the board. They tried to trade around the flatline for much of the day, but they could not hold the move.
SP500, -0.74%; NASDAQ -1.24%; Dow, -0.59%; SP600, -0.79%; SOX, -1.88%.
Pretty much a beating across the market, but with most of the pain felt in the growth areas. There was another down day in the market, and it is one of many. We have three weeks to the downside. It was expiration as well, so there is a bit of extra volume on the session. That does not really mean anything. The point is we have a sharp blow down for the past three weeks. We are below support, moving into the next level that we think would hold. Those are the ones I cited on Thursday, and I will go over them again when discussing the market technicals.
OTHER MARKETS
It was a wild week, but wild is relative.
Dollar. 1.2767 versus 1.2702 euro. The dollar went straight up. The dollar was lower against the euro, but intraday it hit 1.2642 on the low, and that was before it reversed late. Some monkeying around was going on. In my opinion, it was basically a short cover at the end of the week because the dollar had been straight up against the euro, based upon the once-again inflamed worries over what is happening in Greece, Spain, Italy, and now Ireland again. Not to mention France. There are a lot of problems, and the dollar is the recipient of those funds that are leaving all the European banks. First it was in Greece with the run on the bank, and then Spain. Who knows what will be next? I hear Ireland may be having some banking
Bonds. 1.71% versus 1.70% 10 year U.S. Treasury. That money is going into bonds as well. The 10 year on Friday was down a bit. It does not really matter. That was a record 10 year low. Bonds have surged. There was one of those false breakdowns in March. Then it gapped and has rallied sharply to the upside. It does not look as if bonds will slow down.
Indeed, if we look at bonds across the world, focusing on Europe, we know that there is a serious issue. It looks as if something nefarious is brewing, and that something nefarious may be ready to occur. The US bonds have been running higher, of course, but the Germany bund, its 10 year, is at a record low at 1.43%. Greek 10 year bonds are over 29%. Spain is at 6.27%, running back up toward 7%. Credit default swap spreads are rising even higher and higher. Credit default swaps are basically insurance policies, and when spreads widen that means uncertainty is growing. We know how markets of any kind hold great disdain for uncertainty.
Gold. 1,592.10, +17.30. Gold continued its rebound. That is about all we can call it at this point. Two days of a good bounce off of that Wednesday doji at the upper channel line. We have a decent relief bounce underway. It may be more; it may be less. We will see how it all plays out, but gold is bouncing where it needs to. I note that some have called this the bottom in gold. No one knows whether it is or not, but I like the pattern we are seeing. It is holding at an interesting point above that late-December low as well as where it reached down in September 2011 and reversed intraday. It is an interesting point and one where it could mount a relief bounce. We will see if something more comes of it.
Oil. 91.48, -1.08. Oil continues to struggle, and it was down again. No bounce for oil at $92. Oil continues to slide lower on, well, you name it: European economic issues, Chinese economic issues with fear of a hard landing, the Indian slowdown, and Brazil having to cut rates and worry about its economy. Not to mention the U.S. which showed somewhat upsetting news on the economic front on Thursday (there was none out on Friday). There was the negative turn for the Philly Fed, and the leading economic indicators flipped negative as well.
We have some issues here. When it all piles up, you get the dollar rallying and our treasuries moving to the upside. With the fear, you even get gold moving to the upside plus a little oversold relief bounce. The only thing that does not benefit is oil because it depends on economic activity. It had a big run. Now those nasty speculators that ran oil higher are running it lower now, I guess. So let's kick at them. Why are they doing that? Or maybe we should reward them for running it lower. We vilified them when it went higher, so we should make nice to them as it goes lower. Fat chance.
TECHNICAL SUMMARY
The internals were not too exciting, but they were somewhat interesting nonetheless for an expiration session.
Volume. NASDAQ +30%, 2.66B; NYSE +23%, 1.06B. It was expiration Friday along with the Facebook IPO, so that artificially raised the volume. We cannot put too much into that. All week the market sold on elevated volume, and that shows that there has been distribution which is high-volume selling of shares. That continued on Friday even though it was expiration. If you take away some of the Facebook trades, and you still get a high level of volume. Suffice it to say that stocks are selling on high volume. That is not necessarily a bad thing. It gets it out of the system, and they can reverse after that. But that is another story altogether.
Breadth. NASDAQ -2.5:1; NYSE -3.1:1. The advance/decline line was not that nasty on Friday.
Put/Call Ratio. The put/call ratio is at 1.34. It is down a bit from Thursday, but it is high. It has been high for several days straight. It is over a week now above 1.0, and it has been in the 1.2 - 1.4 range which is extraordinarily high. Looking at Investor's Business Daily where they compile all of the put/call numbers together, it is all the way up to 1.4. It is quite high, and that shows that there are a lot of downside plays. We do not know whether they are speculating to the downside or hedging for the downside by buying puts. You do know from general knowledge that it is a combination of those.
Point being that this is a very high number. When everyone starts to think the market is going lower as evidenced by the number of puts being bought either for hedging or outright speculation, that it usually a sign that you have something of a turn coming. Again, this fits into our thesis that the indices are approaching a support level that will at least bounce them up some in a relief bounce.
Summary: We have volatility running higher, hitting almost a resistance point. We have the bulls and bears getting a bit more in line. They need to do more work. We also have the put/call ratio showing that it was a very high level and plays into a rebound scenario. The sentiment indicators are getting a little extreme. When they get extreme, you look for turns in the opposite direction.
THE CHARTS
SP500. SP500 is heading lower once more. It is doing exactly what we thought it would do. We felt that SP500 had more to the downside. It had additional ground to cover down to the 1285 level where we were looking for it to hold. It is about 10 points above that right now. It has that ABCD pattern that I talked about on Thursday night. That is a good bullish consolidation pattern as well. High put/call ratio, VIX spiked up, and now we have a good pattern coming down to the next support level. Maybe we get a bounce. You have to watch for those. It is a situation where everything starts falling together and stacking up into position. You do not want to ignore it and just go all into the downside, particularly after three weeks lower. That is another reason to anticipate a bounce. The rubber band is stretched down to a support level. It has a good consolidation pattern, you have the put/call ratio, and you have VIX. It all dovetails. The problem is that a lot of patterns out there are utter junk. I will talk about that shortly.
DJ30. Dow showed the same kind of pattern: down on rising volume, approaching the next support level, and with of something ABCD pattern. It is not as clean as SP500, however. It is heading lower, but if SP500 hits and bounces, the Dow will do the same thing.
NASDAQ. NASDAQ has an ABCD pattern as well. It is coming down to its support level. We were looking for a hold around 2745, and it closed at 2779. We have about 35-40 points where it can still drop down to support, and then we see if it bounces as well. Same story as the SP500. All those same items falling into position as far as sentiment. We have NASDAQ approaching a support level with a decent pattern as far as a consolidation of the last run.
SP600. SP600 fell as well. It is coming down to its support level although it does not have an ABCD pattern. Remember it is a head and shoulders that broke lower, but it is coming down near some support. We will see if it can hold the line next week as it heads toward 415.
SOX. SOX blasted through its support level. It did not stop or even try to pause. It decided to avoid the Christmas rush and dive through that November 2010 low. Now it is back in the eurozone, that July-December meltdown from last year. The semiconductors leading lower does not bode well for the rest of the market. This one goes to the stack on the other side of the scale that suggests maybe no bounce. Unless things are falling off a cliff, you typically will get a rebound after three or so weeks of downside particularly given all of what I have cited before. There are the ABCD patterns, falling back to support, the stretched rubber band, the put/call ratio, the VIX. You get the idea.
LEADERSHIP
You always have to take leadership into consideration. Do we have any leaders out there? Some stocks have not broken down, although they may not be in particularly great position to buy.
Retail. TJX is holding at the 50 day EMA. That is not bad at all. It is holding up quite well in a weak market. BBBY has had a rough end of the week, but it still has its uptrend in place. It still made a higher high, it is still making higher lows. We will see if it can continue on. RL is heading in the opposite direction, driving lower. It is diving toward those late-2011 lows. We have the good and the bad. That is the way this market is.
Industrial. A lot of key industrials look ready to bounce after a real bloodletting. CAT is at support. It might try to bounce upside, but it would likely just be a relief bounce. It has a big, broad top. It is will probably want to test this very strong 3.5 week move to the downside. At most it will probably make it up to this upper resistance line. That would put it around 97. You could maybe make a trade out of that, but unless there is a major change in the market, you will not get the kind of reversal you want. We have been playing JOY to the downside. It tried to bounce on Friday. Volume has been picking up a bit as it sold off. It is down big over the past four weeks. These could bounce, but these are the kinds of stocks that just rebound. Their patterns kind of stink, so they rebound to take some of the downside pressure off, and then they roll back over and sell again. You can see this across pretty much any of the industrials, whether it is metals with FCX, or industrial metals with BHP. These are in freefall. They could bounce, but they surely do not look as if they will reverse any time soon.
Energy. Energy is the same thing. Coal continues to get utterly slaughtered with BTU getting taken out and shot in as many ways as possible. On the other hand, oil service has been hammered lately, but it has also come back down to a support level. It may want to try a bounce. HAL is coming to a prior low. SLB has come back to a prior low. Slightly undercutting them, but how often do you get that rebound after that slight undercut of prior lows? It did that pack in December, so it is not unheard of that it could make a recovery. We will have to watch those. We are not ready to delve into them with new plays necessarily. But we will definitely be watching them early next week. We will see what they do when they get back up to that support level, which now looks to be a resistance level. If they move through it, then we can make a play to the upside. Looking at the OIH, the overall oil service ETF, you can see that they have bounced down just below the lows and are trying to come back up through them. We will watch those.
Healthcare/Drugs. Drugs and healthcare-related stocks are not stinking the place up. ARNA surged to the upside. It has a beautiful test underway. EW is making a nice test of its own. VRTX has a very nice flag or pennant test of a great move to the upside. We even have some of those interesting possible rebounds in a trading range or off of support. NFLX has a big reversal off of the lows on Friday, right at a support level. There are possibilities to the upside, and we will take a look at those. As a matter of fact, if we will have a rebound those will be the ones we want to play.
THE MARKET
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
The VIX continued to run higher. It is up near the 200 day EMA and is at some resistance. Not a lot of resistance, but it will bump into some. That fits into our thesis that the SP500 and NASDAQ are almost at support levels that will want to bounce them after three weeks of sharp downside selling. There you have it. You got the definitive story, and you heard it here.
VIX: 25.1; +0.61
VXN: 27.55; +1.05
VXO: 24.52; +0.24
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.34; -0.11
Bulls versus Bears
This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market, then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market does not have the cash to drive it higher.
Bulls/Bears. The bulls crept higher last week from 38.7% up to 39.4%. Stock traders were bullish, at least as of Wednesday and Thursday this week. That also included some of last week, so we will likely see that turn. 35% on the bulls is considered the threshold. Below 35% is bullish for the market. They are all bummed, but it is good for the market because enough people are out of the market where if they want to buy, all of a sudden there is plenty of ammunition to run the market higher.
Bears crept higher. They went to 22.3% versus 20.4% last week. They held steady the week before that. They are coming off of almost 24%, however. They have a lot of catching up to do with the bulls. Actually we want to see the bulls turn and fall through 35. We want to see the bears spike higher and have another of these crossovers to the upside as we had back in 2011 when thing got so negative. Then we had a good rally out of that selloff back in the summer and early fall of last year. We had another crossover even before that back when things were really bad in 2009. You get these crossovers, and they can generate good rallies. When we look at the charts, you will see that we have the same kind of action that we had in 2011 when these Quantitative Easing rounds come to an end.
Bulls: 39.4% versus 38.7%. Up again though off the 43.0% and 41.9% the prior two weeks. Still heading for 35%, the key level that turns this to a bullish indication. This is lining up with the put/call ratio. Still over 35% (below which is considered bullish) but dropping fast. Just as the market found support to bounce the bulls ran. Off the 55+ level hit in late February. That was the highest level since April and May of 2011, the peak of the post-bear market high. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. To be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.
Bears: 22.3% versus 20.4% versus 20.4%. Heading back up toward the 23.7% before. Have to get over 35% to really be a good upside indicator and it is heading in the wrong direction. Thus the contrary worry it stirs. Are investors too complacent with the market facing all of these issues? Below late March, and that was down from the 25% to 26% level it held for weeks. For reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.
NASDAQ
Stats: -34.9 points (-1.24%) to close at 2778.79
Volume: 2.665B (+29.94%)
Up Volume: 984.21M (+758.84M)
Down Volume: 1.68B (-90M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 2.45 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 4.12 to 1
New Highs: 11 (-6)
New Lows: 198 (+30)
SP500/NYSE
Stats: -9.64 points (-0.74%) to close at 1295.22
NYSE Volume: 1.066B (+22.81%)
Up Volume: 1.37B (+829.32M)
Down Volume: 3B (-1.05B)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 3.07 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 6.28 to 1
New Highs: 30 (-10)
New Lows: 157 (-4)
DJ30
Stats: -73.11 points (-0.59%) to close at 12369.38
Volume DJ30: 240M shares Friday versus 147M shares Thursday.
MONDAY
Next week we will have some economic data. There are existing home sales on Tuesday. There are new home sales on Wednesday. Thursday we have durable orders and initial claims. We have the Michigan Sentiment final which has been higher than most expectations. We had those surprising economic numbers from Philly and the leading economic indicators last week. Those were not good news. We will have to factor that in along with post-Facebook trading. We still have to face Europe, and I talked about some of the issues when discussing bonds. They are just not good. Late on Friday night, Spain trade to slip in that its deficit numbers would be different. It will add 5.9 percent versus 5.4 percent. We have a bad situation getting worse.
There are the issues I have already discussed. It looks to be a very oversold market. Of course, an oversold market can become even more oversold, so we do not want to say that it has to bounce because it has been down for three weeks. It does not work that they way, although you watch for it. We have all those factors I have already discussed. Three weeks down, support level, high put/call ratio, and the VIX running higher. We do not have a lot of leadership, but we do have some in position to rally. We could get others to bounce. We have to look at it as a relief bounce. That is all you can say given the hard selling. This test from SP500 holdings promise. Same with the NASDAQ; it, too, holds the promise of that ABCD. They are not the prettiest patterns, and leadership is always the litmus test of any attempted move higher.
When you have an ABCD, your target is the prior high. Even if it rallies off of this, it is not necessarily going to break out to a new rally high unless the Fed announces some kind of Quantitative Easing plan. Same as it did in late 2011 with Operation Twist, and same as in August 2010 with QE2. We got the big moves thanks to those, particularly in QE2. Twist wasn't as big, but it managed to keep the money flow coming. That is what the market wanted.
We have those possibilities out there that could bounce the market to a new rally high. We also have to understand that there were a lot of gyrations as QE2 ran out before things fell off a cliff. We have some serious problems. We get an oversold bounce similar to what we had when QE2 was running out. We got good bounces. Look how it made an ABCD and rallied back up just above that prior peak before it rolled over. We can get very good bounces in these moves. Overall, however, we have to watch out for this again because Europe is much worse than I think most people realize or want to admit. We talk about bond yields and CDS spreads, we talk about leaving the EU, and that all seems kind of surreal to us. It is like Europe is having its usual problems. But those usual problems are the kind of problems we had, and what happened? We kind of got out of ours by flooding with liquidity. We have managed to have a very modest attempt at recovery. But we dragged Europe down. It could not stand. It was doing okay, but it could not survive without us. Now it is feeling the aftershocks. We are going back and forth, playing a hot potato game. Now we add in China, Brazil, and India with their economic issues, and we have problems.
We get a bounce after some more selling to start next week. We come down to these support levels I am talking about. We see if we get a reversal. If we do, we can take some more downside off of the table. Then we let the market bounce and we can play some upside. As noted, we will find some stocks that look good to bounce to the upside. We are not playing them for new highs; we are playing them for a bounce to the upside. Then we look to reload to the downside. That is what we had to do this time last year when QE2 was running out. That is the market we have now. We are waiting on the Fed to announce something else. The Fed has no choice but to announce something because the economy is that bad, and so are the other economies of the world. We will get that. The question is when do we get it? That will answer a lot of the problems we face with respect to uncertainty. Why? Because the market loves liquidity, and it will run higher. But all that will do is make the ultimate pain even worse than it would be now.
The Fed is committed. Bernanke does not want to be seen as the guy who let a potential recovery slip away. He does not want to be seen as the guy who engineered the second Great Depression, although that is what he has done with the help of the Obama administration and its policies. He has to act before too long, or else he will be seen as the political hack that he is. I am being very hard on him, I know. It has been a long week. But he will have to act before too long because he has no choice. You can pick the image of Mr. Bernanke that you like: villain, hero, whatever. The point is that he will have to make a decision relatively soon. Given the shape of the European situation and problems and China and other places (as well as here in the U.S.), he is not going to have a lot of success. We worry about whether there will be another recession. Europe is heading that way. It is already in one, really, even though it had a 0.0% GDP growth this past quarter. It is just getting worse. Frankly, I do not believe we are getting better. It is a long way from being in a recession, but Mr. Bernanke will not take that chance. He will do something. The question, again, is timing.
For now, we play a little upside. We play a little more upside on a bounce after that selling, and then we gear up for more downside. Not a pleasant prognosis, but we are working through a post-Quantitative Easing/Twist environment, and we are waiting on the next program to be initiated. That is what you get with this kind of intervention.
I will see you on Monday. Have a great weekend!
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 2778.79
Resistance:
2816 is the early April 2011 peak.
2841 is the February 2011 peak
2862 is the 2007 peak
2879 is the July 2011 peak
The 10 day EMA at 2887
2888 is the May 2011 peak and PRIOR post-bear market high
2900 is the March 2012 low
2910 is the recent March 2012 low
The 50 day EMA at 2965
3000 is the February 2012 post-bear market high
3026 from 10/2000 low
3042 from 5/2000 low
3090 is the mid-March interim high
3134 is the March 2012 post-bear market peak
3227 is the April 2000 intraday low
3401 is the May 2000 closing low
Support:
2754 is the October 2011 high
The 200 day SMA at 2741
2706 to 2705 is the April 2011 low and the February 2011 and consolidation low (bottom of the trading range) 2723 to 2705 is the range of support at the bottom of the January to May trading range
2686 is the January 2011 closing low
2676 is the January 2010 low and the December 2011 peak
2645-2650ish from December 2010 consolidation
2643 is the September 2011 high
2612 is the late August 2011 peak
2603 is the March 2011 intraday low (post-Japan low)
2599 is the June 2011 low and NASDAQ
2593 is the November intraday high
2580 is the November 2010 closing high
2555 is the mid-August 2011 peak
2535 is the November island reversal gap point
2441 is the November 2011 low
S&P 500: Closed at 1295.22
Resistance:
1318.51 is the May 2011 low
1332 is the early March 2011 peak
The 10 day EMA at 1335
1340 is the early April 2011 peak
1344 is the February 2011 peak
1357 is the July 2011 peak
The 50 day EMA at 1364
1371 is the May 2011 peak, the post-bear market high
1378 is the February 2012 peak
1422.38 is the Post-bear market high (March 2012)
1425 from May 2008 closing highs
1433 from August 2007 closing lows
1440 from November 2007 closing lows
Support:
1295 to 1294 is the April 2011 low and the February 2011 consolidation low (bottom of the trading range)
1293 is the October 2011 peak
The 200 day SMA at 1278
1275 is the January 2010 low, early January 2011 peak
1267 is the December 2011 peak
1258 is June 2011 intraday low
1255 is the late December 2010 consolidation range
1249 is the March 2011 low (post-Japan)
1235 is the mid-December 2010 consolidation low
1231 is the late August 2011 peak
1227 is the November 2010 peak
1220 is the April 2010 peak
1209 is the mid-August 2011 high
1196 is the November 2010 consolidation peak
1178-1180 is the October 2010/November 2010 consolidation low
1158 is the November 2011 low
1131 - 1127 from August 2010 base peak.
1119 is the early August closing low
1109 is the mid-September 2010 gap up point
1101 is the August 2011 low
1099 from the mid-July interim peak
1075 is the October 2011 intraday low
Dow: Closed at 12,369.38
Resistance:
12,391 is the February 2011 peak
The 10 day EMA at 12,682
12,754 is the July intraday peak
12,876 is the May high
The 50 day EMA at 12,907
13,056 is the February 2012 high
13,058 from the May 2008 peak on that bounce in the selling
13,297 is the April 2012, post bear market high
13,668 from 12-2007 peak
13,692 from 6-2007 peak
14,022 from 7-07 peak
Support:
12,284 is the October 2011 peak
12,258 is the December 2011 peak
The 200 day SMA at 12,198
12,110 from the March 2007 closing low
12,094 is the April 2011 low
The June low at 11,897 (closing)
11,734 from 11-98 peak
11,717 is the late August 2011 peak
The August low at 11,702
11,555 is the March low
11,452 is the November 2010 peak
11,178 from November 2010
10,978 is the bottom of the November 2010 consolidation
10,750 from September 2010
10,720 is the August closing low
10,705-710 from January 2010 peak
10,694-700 from August 2010 peak
Economic Calendar
May 22 - Tuesday
Existing Home Sales, April (10:00): 4.65M expected, 4.48M prior
May 23 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 05/19 (7:00): 9.2% prior
New Home Sales, April (10:00): 340K expected, 328K prior
FHFA Housing Price Index, March (10:00): 0.3% prior
Crude Inventories, 05/19 (10:30): 2.128M prior
May 24 - Thursday
Initial Jobless Claims, 05/19 (8:30): 365K expected, 370K prior
Continuing Claims, 05/12 (8:30): 3250K expected, 3265K prior
Durable Goods Orders, April (8:30): 0.3% expected, -3.9% prior (revised from -4.0%)
Durable Goods Orders -ex Transportation, April (8:30): 1.0% expected, -1.3% prior (revised from -0.8%)
May 25 - Friday
Michigan Sentiment - Final, May (9:55): 77.5 expected, 77.8 prior |
