To: Mr.Gogo who wrote (48114 ) 5/24/2012 8:06:45 PM From: E_K_S 1 Recommendation Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 78765 Hi Gogo - Re: Natural Gas (Note: The NG value plays may be in Australia w/ Japan being the big new user) Two items come to mind from the article. The first is the matter of well depletion rates BOTH for Oil & NG.He noted that shale wells not only cost “three to four times” as much to develop as conventional gas wells, their rate of depletion – the amount production declines over time, a natural phenomenon with all wells – is much higher. As a result, the average annual depletion rate across the industry has risen from about 23 per cent five years ago to more than 32 per cent now. The actual depletion rates could even be higher than those stated in the article. We just do not have enough experience w/ these wells in the different shale regions to know what the depletion rates should be. I do know that many of the analysts reports I have seen use a far lower depletion rate (making the NPV of the well far higher) than it really will be, especially in the out years. Therefore the intrinsic value of those wells is much lower than their "stated" value IMO. The Oil Sand projects begin to look pretty attractive as their "strip mine" depletion rates are calculated differently and probably more accurate. So their very long "end of life" projections have merit. That's why the value proposition for Suncor Energy Inc. and CANADIAN OIL SANDS (Other OTC: COSWF.PK) are very attractive to me. Second, Japan is the wild card "huge user" for NG causing large future growth in NG consumption. LNG Consumption in Japan Reaches Record High in April community.nasdaq.com Japan's 10 utility companies, with no more nuclear power to turn to, burned natural gas to a record high in April this year compared to a year ago.Data from the Federation of Electric Power Companies of Japan showed the country used up a record 4.56 million tonnes of liquefied natural gas ( LNG ), a jump of 33 per cent versus the same period a year ago . The corresponding electricity generated from the consumption totaled 70.99 billion kilowatt-hours, up 2.7 per cent from April in 2010. The Australian NG reserves will go to Japan. Chevron, COP & HES all have properties and/or JV they are developing to get LNG to Japan. Chevron Signs Up Japanese LNG Customer blogs.wsj.com Japan, the world’s third-largest energy consumer after China and the U.S., is ramping up natural gas use due to a shortfall in nuclear power output following the earthquake and tsunami last year.Nuclear power provided 30% of Japan’s electricity generation before the earthquake and now all of the country’s reactors are offline. The country’s natural gas consumption surged 27% in the fiscal year ended March 31 , helping it avoid major power shortages last summer.Gorgon is over 40% complete and remains on track to ship its first LNG cargo in 2014, while Wheatstone is still targeting first LNG in 2016, Mr. Krzywosinski said. The deal with Tohoku means over 80% of Chevron’s equity output from Wheatstone is now contracted to buyers under initial or binding long-term deals. BHP Billiton Discovers Natural Gas Offshore Western Australia April 18. 2012nasdaq.com BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP.AU) said Wednesday a natural gas discovery offshore Western Australia state could significantly increase the size of its Scarborough gas field, enhancing its appeal as a potential supply source for gas export facilities under construction on the coast.....BHP wholly owns North Scarborough, located near one of the company's biggest gas discoveries in recent years, held in a joint venture with ExxonMobil Corp. (XOM). My largest holding is CVX (No. 1 holding). I also have shares in BHP ( No. 3 holding), COP (No 5 holding), XOM (No. 8 holding) and HES (No. 39 holding). All have plans developing their Australian NG interests. I think I will build my Candian Oil Sand holdings because of the well depletion rate argument but I will still focus on those companies that build and operate the US domestic NG infrastructure. This includes the MLP's that operate mid-stream operations that process the NG, pipeline (and some rail/truck) operators that control the intra-state transportation of NG and the utilities (ie, GAS, ATO & MDU) that have the large underground NG storage facilities and inter-state distribution lines to deliver the NG to the business and retail users. There are a lot of ways to spread your money around to participate in the NG explosion from the U.S. shale fracking. I am beginning to believe that only when the rates are really low (like below $2.00/Mcf) does a "pure" NG play makes sense (I bought XCO at prices below $6.00/share). Also, prices w/i the industry get over valued (like some of the utilities MDU for examples over $23.00/share) so you really can not buy & hold but rather you buy and rotate except for the very large integrators. I do believe that the overall growth in NG is real and is replacing nuclear and coal powered utilities. Japan's switch was forced by a disaster. Germany and U.S. usage is being driven by price and environmental concerns. However, the undervalued overlooked energy play may now be the Canadian Oil Sand projects. EKS