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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: FJB who wrote (10549)	11/25/1997 6:44:00 PM
From: TideGlider	Respond to of 25960

ALL: I hope I am not repeating this post. The Model P - Asia Crisis Doesn't Foretell Tech Doomsday By Bill Schaff, TechInvestor contributor NC this, NC that. Remote access devices and more. Comdex was huge and busy as usual. But when I got back to the office, all anyone could talk about was Asia. So here is my two cents worth on that area. The fundamental implications are too complex for my small brain to comprehend. There will definitely be more currency volatility. Capital spending due to expansion plans will be hit hard. Overall, the impact will be felt over years not months. But let's get to the bottom line. What happens to technology? Semiconductor growth will be impacted slightly and will likely be slower than the 17-18 percent original growth forecast. It seems likely that it may trend closer to 15 percent in 1998 - still quite healthy by any measurement. Semiconductor equipment also will be impacted but not nearly as badly as people expect. This year's bookings pace may be pushed out impacting 1999 earnings but 1998 is not likely to see a significant downturn except for those companies exposed heavily to the Korean and emerging markets. Upgrade cycle will still continue due to push on newer technology implementation - net result is growth in the equipment sector of about 10 percent. Investors will have to differentiate between equipment suppliers. I expect that companies like AMAT and KLA-Tencor will survive the downturn and take advantage of others during the weakness. On a spec, I like Cymer at these price levels. Overall, I still prefer corporate-biased software technology companies. Compuware, Veritas, BMC Software, Computer Associates seem like steadier businesses without the volatility. The Y2000 issue is very serious and will be the focus of most IT managements in 1998. I do believe that capital is being re-allocated at the corporate level to deal with this problem. Other development projects are getting delayed. As we get into December, I will be listing my expected winners for 1998. On another note, BDM International got a good deal from TRW -- and so did TRW. The synergies are extensive. BDMI had extensive IT contracts for federal, state and local governments. TRW is also very strong in that arena as well. The corporate fit should be good and the transaction price was actually FAIR. Dell reports after the close on Monday. I expect that Dell will have a slight upside surprise - as usual. Most analysts would be disappointed if they did not report at least $0.67 vs. consensus of $0.65. Keep a sharp eye on gross margins. Bay Isle Financial manages the InformationTech 100 Mutual Fund. Bill Schaff is the portfolio manager for the fund. For more information and a prospectus, go to www.bayisle.com. All e-mail should be addressed to bschaff@bayisle.com.