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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert b furman who wrote (13170)	6/7/2012 4:50:35 AM
From: John Pitera	2 Recommendations Respond to of 33421

Hi Bob, a truly excellent post. No doubt that we have seen the bottom in some bombed out asset prices. I have so called "on the front line" contacts and analysts in florida that I talk to regularly and florida that witnessed housing prices triple from 2000 to late 2005 early 2006. And then decline by 66% or more as well as entire neighborhoods where homes went into foreclosure and were empty and then were sold at auction and are now being lived in. This is on east coast and over on the gulf coast in the monied area south of Tampa. Hence elements of Reflation are already evident. we are seeing lows in several tangible asset classes in the US. I have a more detailed analysis that I am a bit too tired to fully develop here (but need to more fully articulate over the next few days) but the outline is that the 7 year crude oil strip, which existed in the early 1990s, whic is now a 10 year strip ( which is simply the month by month crude contract that goes out 10 years and is available at the Nymex or in the WSJ.) shows us how one of the deepest markets with some of the best managed companies..... Exxon Mobil has been in the DJIA ...... since very nearly the DJIA's inception in 1896. These companies no longer forecast the long term price of crude.... where the futures market did back in the 1980's and 1990's. I'll expand on this as it's one of the most compelling examples of how the world has changed since say circa 2002-2004. The Key point is that the oil producers used to know the price of oil 7 years out and then 10 years out, but since 2005 or 2007, they no longer Know what the price will be due to the fact that they don't know what the currencies will do. They have no clue what the euro/dollar cross rate willl be in 10 years. Nor do they know what the value of several of the other major currencies will be worth. more on this ....... John