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Technology Stocks : Oracle Corporation (ORCL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: seth thomas who wrote (3673)	11/25/1997 10:09:00 PM
From: Kevin Yang	Respond to of 19080

>And, no one has still answered my question about why the stock has >been flat for a year. You have managed to compare the seasonaly weakest quarter of this FY with the seasonaly strongest quarter of last FY. Now, try comparing ORCL high of $40+ this year with ORCL low of $19 last year. You will see that the stock has done amazingly well. You will probably agree that this comparison is also meaningless.

To: seth thomas who wrote (3673)	11/25/1997 10:15:00 PM
From: Eric	Respond to of 19080

Steven, The stock has not been flat for a year. It is another case of bad comparison. Oracle stock was way ahead of itself this time last year when it broke through 50 (about 33 split-adjusted). At that point the PE was well over 50 and the stock was considered way overpriced. In one year the stock hit a high of 42 (63 in term of before split price). Right now during the tech correction the price is at about the same level as it was a year ago, but the relative valuation is very different. At the same price, Oracle is consider undervalued now. In any case, you cannot value Oracle the same way you value VNTV, SEBL, RMDY, or even PSFT. Those companies are relatively small and you would expect sequential growth in early stages of a growth company. Oracle is a much more mature and its earning like most other mature company's will be seasonal. That is just a fact of life. Look at IBM, HWP, MSFT, CSCO, etc., etc.,... Liscence growth is disappointing last quarter. That is still very different from VNTV/SEBL/or RMDY/PSFT having a slow quarter. Oracle has been changing itself from a pure software company to a solution company for the past 5+ years. In fact that is the big difference between Oracle and Informix. Some day we may have to change the way we view Oracle as a traditional software company if Oracle can prove along the way that it can sustain the growth from the service sector of the business while taking a hit in the liscence growth. That is all yet to be seen.