just cleared from e-mail tray
From: J
Sent: Tuesday, June 5, 2012 6:33 AM
Subject: Re: Comments - Week of June 4 - there are differences between obama n romney, and russell shouts bear
h, one is a black coke drinker who is biased towards war and inflation,
the other a white pepsi sipper who favors deflation and war
surprised you missed the obvious :0)
i hope the electorates choose wisely
between tribe china's 5-years plans and high speed railing, and
team usa's 4-more-years of same same and college campus facebook made popular by internet-enabling
we should do fine by hoarding gold and topping up anything aaa+ and yielding more than 1%
we are fortunate to not have too many choices that would only confuse us, in politics and finance
cheers, j
June 4, 2012 -- DANGER -- A primary bear market has been signaled according to Dow Theory. On May 1 the Dow Industrials rose to a high of 13279.32. The Transports failed by a wide margin to confirm. The two Averages then turned down and broke below their April lows. Under Dow Theory, this was confirmation that a primary bear market is in progress.
When you have a wild party at your house, there's always the next day, which is the day you hate. You hate it because it means cleaning up.
It's the same thing when a bull market ends. After the bull market party, as sure as night follows day, a primary bear market arrives. And that means clean up time in your house and on Wall Street. Bear markets can be messy and very painful. All the dirty water creeps out from the bottom of the dark closet. Some of it can be sopped up with a mop. And some of it stains your beautiful wood floors and will remain there as a perpetual memento of the wild party.
Most bear markets wipe out a half to two-thirds of the preceding bull market. As a rule, the more froth the bull market generates, the nastier the bear market that follows.
A great bull market started in 1980 and lasted until 2007, a length of 27 years. Using the old "formula," the bear market that began in 2007 might last 10 to 13 years or until 2020.
Bear markets tend to come in three sentiment phases. The first phase is the one that erases the froth and frenzy that appeared at the end or top of the preceding bull market. That may correspond with the disaster of the Facebook IPO or the frenzy of the Apple madness.
The second phase of a bear market is usually the longest phase, and here stocks go down as they discount deteriorating business conditions, rising unemployment and declining profits.
The third and final phase of a bear market is the desperation or "I GIVE UP" phase -- this is where good stocks are tossed into the market for no other reason but fear or the need to raise money. Sentiment at, or towards the end of, a bear market, can often be heard through expressions such as, "I never want to hear about stocks again," or "I wouldn't walk within a mile of Wall Street; they're all crooks."
Bear markets end in exhaustion, at a time when the last seller has thrown in his wares. At the very end of a bear market, volume tends to peter out, and a non-confirmation is often (but not always) seen in the D-J Averages.
Major bear market declines can be extended and even tedious, while the rallies or counter-moves can come unexpectedly and are often rapid and violent (the violence is usually a result of frantic short-covering by traders who are trapped by the rally).
In closing this site, I want to reiterate that bear markets tend to be deceptive and not usually given to logical analysis. One reason for this is that bear markets operate within a background of naked fear.
Two emotions rule the market -- Fear and greed. Of the two, fear is the stronger of the two -- because the specter behind the fear is LOSS. Greed is also a strong emotion, but fear of loss trumps the desire for gain.
TODAY'S MARKET ACTION:
My PTI was down 2 at 6357. The moving average is 6373, so my PTI is bearish by 16.
The Dow was down 17.11 to 12101.46.
Transports were down 64.14 to 4847.73.
Utilities were up 1.45 to 465.76.
NASDAQ was up 12.53 to 2760.01.
S&P 500 was up 0.14 to 1278.18.
There were 1290 advances and 1767 declines on the NYSE.
There were 24 new highs and 158 new lows.
Total Volume on the NYSE and associated exchanges was 3.96 billion.
Bonds: Yield on the 10 year T-note was 1.526. Yield on the long T-bond was 2.567. Yield of the 91 day T-bill was 0.074.
Dollar Index was down 0.331 at 82.55. Euro was up 0.80 at 124.93. Yen was down 0.39 at 127.67. Currency Prices as of 1 PM Pacific Time.
August gold was down 8.20 to 1613.90. July silver was down 0.505 to 28.00.
July light crude was up 0.75 to 83.98.
My Most Active Stocks Index was down 9 at 202.
The Big Money Breadth Index was up 2 at 965.
GDX was up 0.75 at 47.33.
HUI was up 6.39 at 450.89.
CRB Commodity Index was up 1.69 at 270.00.
The VIX was down 0.44 at 26.22.
Permanent Portfolio Fund (PRPFX) was up 0.11 at 46.27 (previous day closing). YTD Return: 0.39%.
As of last Friday, the Dow had been down 14 out of the last 18 sessions (actually, down 18 of the last 22 sessions). These are extraordinary series, and they may be records -- I don't know. I do know that after 14 lower closes out of 18 sessions, the odds favor a rally of one day or more. Frankly, I've never seen a bear market start in this way (and this lop-sided), but as I've so often said, I keep learning.
I'm still stunned by the fact that I received a definite Dow Theory bear signal, and not one other advisor or "expert" appears to have identified the bear signal. I carefully searched the latest issue of Barron's for a sign that any of their columnists had identified the Dow Theory bear signal. Not a hint of it in Barron's. Thus it appears that Wall Street and the great majority of investors are operating blindly -- by that I mean that they are optimistic and investing, or still holding stocks -- unaware that they are operating in a primary bear market. I've never seen anything like it.
I said that nobody else had identified the bear market signal. I was wrong -- my old friend, Bob Prechter, of Elliot Wave fame caught it. The paragraph below is from Bob's actual recent report.
"By the way, the Dow Transports (Figure 13), by failing to get above their 2011 high, have left behind a striking Dow Theory non-confirmation. Under Dow Theory, if both averages were to break their October 2011 lows, it would confirm that a new primary bear market is in force. Richard Russell taught me that 40 years ago."
Important -- Note on the daily chart below that the widely-followed S&P 500 Composite closed below its long-term 200-day (red line) moving average on Friday.
Up-to-date daily chart of Facebook below -- The IPO was issued at a price of 38!
Russell's election bet --
Romney will stand his ground (he'll win simply by Obama's default)
OBAMA will lose on the basis of terrible unemployment figures in the fall. Obama doesn't realize that the economy is caught in a primary bear market. Actually, Obama doesn't know what a bear market is -- he's in a total fog. If you know the Prez, feel sorry for him. He's totally at sea, and the tide is running out!!
Late Notes -- Yes, it's hard to believe, but the Dow is down again. It wouldn't surprise me if the Fed was buying stocks at the end of today's session. Dow down 15 out of 19 sessions. In my half century of watching markets, I've never seen anything to compare with this baby! What have the gods of the markets stirred up? Help! But none of this should surprise my beloved subscribers.
All the odds suggest that the market should rally tomorrow, and it should be a rally of one or more days. Has Wall Street gone mad, or is this the wind-up for an historic primary bear market? Remember, we are just at the beginning.
Below -- the Dow under its 200-day MA
From: H
Sent: Tuesday, June 5, 2012 5:12 AM
Subject: Re: Comments - Week of June 4
youtube.com
as you can see, there is basically zero difference between the two.
On Mon, Jun 4, 2012 at 8:33 PM, B wrote:
Change?
ricochet.com
On Monday, June 4, 2012, M wrote:
If Obama is going to give me $3,000 next year - can he give it to me in US denominated gold?
I think gold is on the US balance sheet at $42 per ounce.
I'll take 70 ounces please.....the Government can keep the change......
M
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