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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (169299)10/5/2012 2:37:19 PM
From: Jacob Snyder1 Recommendation  Respond to of 206101
 
OT airline shorting: sold LCC calls today, March 2013s, $12 strike price for $1.63. Also shorted DAL yesterday at $10.10; considering shorting UAL at $23, either directly or selling at-the-money calls.

With the S&P500 at multi-year highs, the VIX at multi-year lows, and QE3, fear is low. That's when I short.

XAL (airline index) peaked in late 2010, and has set a series of lower highs since then as the S&P500 sets new highs, indicating there isn't much upside in airline stocks, no matter how good the news gets.

LCC doesn't hedge its fuel costs, so it swings more with the price of oil, compared to other airlines.

LCC has a 12-month range of $3.96-14.51, now at $11.69. If it goes up, I'll probably sell more at-the-money calls when LCC is at $13 and $14. If it goes down, I'll probably buy back half my calls when LCC hits $10, and see if the rest will expire worthless. If it keeps stalling at $12, I'll sell more calls (3-6 months out) each time.