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Gold/Mining/Energy : Orbite Aluminae -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Bio_investor who wrote (1619)6/7/2012 5:49:48 AM
From: verjam1 Recommendation  Respond to of 6560
 
Conversations you've had with whom? Please list your source.



To: Bio_investor who wrote (1619)6/7/2012 9:35:39 AM
From: glenn_a1 Recommendation  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 6560
 
Bio_Investor.

A quick response to your macro post. But first, just want to state that I hold a core position in Orbite irrespective of my negative macro view.

Regarding the investors/economists you listed, Gerald Celente I take with a huge grain of salt. While I appreciate his perspective and his outrights disdain for TPTB (the powers that be), he's a bit over the top for me. Harry S. Dent is has interesting perspectives on generational investing, but not someone I follow regularly. I love Marc Faber, he's hilarious and pretty spot on I find. Roubini's solid. But Raoul Pal I find interesting.

I actually hadn't heard of Pal until this presentation of his was posted on Zerohedge last week (and is the source of the "RESET" comment you heard on BNN). I find Pal's outlook to be very similar to other top hedge fund managers such as Kyle Bass and Hugh Hendry - both in their emphasis on global debt deleveraging dynamics and their bearish outlooks on China and Japan. Generally, I view these guys as the real smart money. They have great track records over the longer term, but are often early on their trades.

Certainly the "risk on" trade is back in full force these past few days from perceived positive commentary (yet again!) from Eurocrats and today's announcement out of China on monetary easing - and we'll see what Bernanke has to say today in his JEC testimony). So I think in many ways it boils down to how confident one is that global monetary authorities can engineer a policy response to prevent significant debt deflation and a smooth glide path to restructuring insolvent European banks. It's not a story that will be told tomorrow, or this week, or this month ... but will unfold with many twists and turns over the next decade. It is truly a fascinating time.

Meanwhile, as an antidote to Central Banker propaganda, always nice to check in with Jim Grant - Ron Paul's preference for the next Fed Reserve chairman (which of course will NEVER happen).

glenn