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To: THE ANT who wrote (91542)	6/15/2012 1:32:47 PM
From: Snowshoe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217769

>>Do you have easy access to my 2005 Brazil apologist post?<< This one? Message 21108477

To: THE ANT who wrote (91542)	6/17/2012 9:04:44 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 217769

A country grows until it hits its head on the ceiling. A country has a growth potential which limited by its own power structures. If the country is very backward, it can grow at a higher rate once its structure changes. China post 1979, Germany and Japan devastated by war. Angola in the past decade post civil war. Whenever the old structures are destroyed, the potential for economic growth is unleashed. If a country faces the demolition of its own structures, its governing elites reacts by doing the revolution WITHIN before someone do it from the outside or it collapses under its own weight. Collapsing under its own weight example is the USSR. Brazil and China facing the collapse of its structures changed by their own to avoid collapse of a revolution that would have destroyed the entrenched elites and its own interests. Once China and Brazil did the internal revolutions, it ensued a era of high economic growth. China was backward so much that needs half century of accelerated growth to catch up. Brazil, had been sent back to the line by the Lost Decade, had a growth spur of a decade and not a growth that could be considered stellar.

To: THE ANT who wrote (91542)	6/17/2012 9:13:05 AM
From: elmatador	3 Recommendations Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 217769

Once a country is put in a growth path, it has a limit to its growth. It comes to a point it hit its head on the ceiling. This limit is set by the agreements reached by the members of the governing elites. There is an opening for growth limited to a point that does not allow for the loss of control by the elites. China will reach the point at which it can no longer grow because the economy would require, then, a higher degree of freedom that the governing elites would not be willing to allow. They would have to relinquish this relic of communist era the five year grow plan and they have been doing for 60 years are do not know how to manage the economy without that five-year plan. Thus they will stick to it. Russia growth levels off because the governing elites cannot deal with foreign interests that supply technology and managerial capacity. At the same time they pick the winners within and have to keep close control who will win what. They prefer lower growth rather than loss of control.

To: THE ANT who wrote (91542)	6/17/2012 9:23:57 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217769

Brazil reached an economic level that to growth steadily at the potential level of 4% requires deep changes in the economy to allow for that 4% growth. Brazilian governing elites already extracted all the economic growth that the present degree of freedom allowed. Consumption-led growth is easier and faster than investment-led growth. Investment-led growth needs the dismantling of the elites' agreements set during the late 60s and early 70s during military regime. I contributed that to Clownbuck explaining the power sector which illustrates the issue I described above. Message 28201943 That means economic start running in 'political time' rather than in 'market time'. If you try to free a certain sector, say airports, you touch all the established local interests. Investors that bid for concessions, property owners, construction companies and civil servants. All those actors -with the regulator in tandem- have a member in the senate and parliament defending their own narrow interests. The big mouthed free press will broadcast to the populace the interests they choose to sponsor. That scenario goes for harbors, power generation, roads you name it. This type of issues are understood in Brazil by perhaps 10 thousand people among a population fo 200 million.