InvestmentHouse Weekend Market Update:
siliconinvestor.com
- Stocks fear no Greece election, ride weaker data and rising stimulus hopes into the weekend.
- ECB reportedly gets over its worries about cutting rates below 1%, another step on the path to US-style quantitative easing.
- SP500, DJ30 lead higher with breakouts from their inverted head and shoulders patterns.
- Empire Manufacturing doesn't flip negative, but it comes close.
- Industrial production and Capacity stop their climb.
- Michigan early year good cheer abruptly stalls.
- A modern day case study of the disastrous effects of excessive debt: Greek healthcare in shambles, citizens cut off from lifesaving drugs, treatment.
- Waiting on Greece, but does it matter: either way the ECB is ready to print and the US is likely ready to assist in a 'coordinated' effort.
Oh, and it was expiration Friday . . .
Usually expiration Friday is a story in itself and stocks react with positions closed, rolled out, and otherwise adjusted for a new month. Clearly volumes were up late in the week on the adjustments, but it was as much due to a rapid recovery in stocks off the early June lows as much as to expiration. In other words, the jump higher Thursday and Friday forced the hand of those predominantly short the market, further fueling the volume and direction on Friday.
SP500 +1.03%; NASDAQ +1.29%; DJ30 +0.91%; SP600 +1.18%; SOX +1.63%
We anticipated that Friday would finish positive but not with the strength demonstrated. SP500 broke out and through its 50 day EMA as it jumped out of its inverted head and shoulders. Ditto the DJ30. It jumped over the 50 day EMA and out of its pattern. NASDAQ and its fellow growth indices were up. SP600 and SOX were up as well, but they did not make the breakouts. They continued to lag, they did not break through the 50 day EMA, and they did not even break out of their patterns. But it is not the time of year for growth stocks, particularly when you look at the economic data. Thus I am more than happy to see them tag along to the upside. It certainly beats them getting thrashed to the downside.
The Friday session was viewed by some as plain old foolishness and over-exuberance. Chasing stocks higher into a critical European weekend? Perhaps that was it. Futures were not soaring early on; indeed, they fell off of their overnight highs and had to rebuild, particularly as the session got underway. Indeed, the move was stronger than we really wanted just before this weekend. But looking at the possible outcomes, we do not see it as overly strong or "irrational exuberance," to borrow from Alan Greenspan. For the markets, it could be a winning scenario regardless of the election outcome. Either the ECB and friends (other central banks) will not be needed because the "right" people win, or there is another stalemate, or the "wrong" people gain power and the ECB and friends have to step in and save the financial markets' need for a liquidity fix.
Investors appeared to view things according to the latter logic, particularly given the story on top of the Thursday consortium story. This revealed that the ECB was over its hang-ups on cutting rates below 1%. Seems there is quite a leak in the halls where EU monetary policy decisions are made. These stories are "leaking" out on a daily if not hourly basis. Wherever it is coming from, whether it is the ECB or maybe the Obama administration (it has its own problems with leaks as well), the markets ate it up. The indices posted solid 1% gains across the board.
The growth indices did post better percentage moves on the day, but they were lagging already and were unable to make breakouts from their inverted head and shoulders. I already noted that, but I just want to point it out because some will say, "They were up more on the day." I am not disputing that, but they are lagging overall. They had more ground to catch up, and they did not make breakouts. They tagged along, and I am happy for that. Will it last? Let us look at the economic data that came out.
There were all kinds of stories on Friday on top of the stories earlier in the week. It was not good. New York Empire Manufacturing was well off pace. Industrial production and capacity stopped their gains and have been reversing. Up in Michigan, the warm spring excitement started to ebb rather dramatically. I would call this a stall, but it is a stall and reversal in the sentiment coming out of Michigan starting in June. We have that data on top of the other economic data we have seen -- whether initial jobless claims, retail sales, or jobs -- which is not good. The economic data is not supporting growth in the growth indices. It is rather terrible and likely why growth is lagging, and it is likely why we viewed this move as merely a bounce if it continues the breakout. We do not think we will hit any new highs this time around. We could get a really trading rally out of this. It looks like we will get that from the setup. We have some gaps to fill from early in May and other points as well. We can get a decent rally out of this and make money to the upside after making money to the downside through the beginning of June. After that, however, I think we are in trouble.
We have serious problems. It is an election year, and the President is trying to cram in everything he can to wake up his base and say, "Look what I am doing for you." On Friday two things were announced. There was an end run around Congress with respect to some form of the DREAM Act. Something surely has to be done, but the Executive branch does not have the power to make this kind of decision on his own. But that is just what he is doing. He runs around Congress. He said this is something he could not do on his own just six months ago. But now he just did it. Why? It is an election year, and he wants to gather in those votes. It is pathetic, sickening pandering. I am sure both sides do it; no one is immune up in Washington, D.C. It is a disgusting mess to see our commander-in-chief say that six months ago and then completely throw his words out the window. I am sorry to offend some people, but he has no honor. He says one thing and then he will do and say something completely different later because it is politically expedient. I guess that is nothing new for most people in Washington, D.C., but it is disgusting to see the leader of the free world do that. His word means nothing. Well, I said it. My dad and mom taught me that I should respect the office but that I do not have to respect the man. I guess I will get off my soapbox and move on. Maybe I am just a bit bitter.
On top that, our friends in the EPA announced late on Friday that there were new regulations on businesses with respect to air quality controls and omissions. So we will just kick the market while it is down, kick business while it is down, kick the workers while they are down. Let's just kill the economy. After all, it is going to hell in a handbasket anyway. The ECRI says we are going into recession right now. That is what Trimtab says as well. Europe is already in recession, and India may be there right now. I guess we will follow, so does it really matter? We can just stomp it into the ground because it really will not be felt until after the election anyway. Maybe he will get reelected. Then we can all suffer through the next four years and then the next 40 years after that because of the policies in place. I'm sorry; I was supposed to get off my soapbox.
Back to the point of the market: The rally looks solid for us no matter what happens this weekend. It will be a liquidity-induced kind of rally. Come Wednesday when the Fed meets, the Fed may not give the market what it wants. So we get a rally up into that point, and then maybe we run out of gas. Hopefully it will be a big rally and we can take some positions, or we can let our positions continue up and take some gain. Then get the heck out of dodge in case things roll over if the Fed disappoints. It has not said that it will put forth some Quantitative Easing. It has not changed its tune, so to speak. That takes time. So it would not do it in June; it would be in August. It is competing. Some say it cannot do it because that would be too close to the election. Given what we saw on Friday, I do not think anything would be considered untoward for this Fed and this administration. I might be getting back up on my soapbox, so I will step back down again.
OTHER MARKETS.
Dollar. 1.2638 versus 1.2595 euro. The dollar is hanging in there. It posted a good rally in May. It broke out over old highs. It is looking solid. A tremendous base for the dollar. Almost an inverted head and shoulders with a triangle thrown in there and a breakout. Now a flag and coming back to the 20 day EMA. It is still ready to break to the upside. What would do it is if the Fed does nothing. That would break it out. If the Fed does something, it will break down.
Bonds. 1.58% versus 1.63% 10 year US Treasury. Bonds rallied in a decent move. Bonds are rallying again. It was a good and bad week for US auctions. The bid-to-covers are not great. The indirect buyers were not great. We are having direct buyers, and it is either the Treasury buying its own stuff or someone buying on behalf of the Treasury. Maybe it is China. We will find out later.
We offered record lows at auction for the 10 year. There is demand for it as safety, no doubt. It seems we just have to buy it because the US has a tremendous amount of debt and we have to help it out, too. Bonds are poised to move higher, perhaps anticipating something from the ECB and something from the US Fed. There is a dichotomy. If we get a lot of stimulus, that may quell the fears about Europe. Maybe some money comes out of US Treasuries and back over to the continent. Maybe. If the Fed says it will buy, then bonds will go up, obviously, because it will be buying more bonds. That likely will not happen next week, so we will see if the bonds do break to the upside. A lot of that will play upon what the election turns out to be and the ECB's response to that election.
Gold. 1,628.20, +8.40. Gold continued its modest rise. It broke through the 50 day EMA this week. It has not taken out the late-May/early-June highs, but it is working on it. It put in a closing high. It has not been able to put in a higher high at this point, but it is working on it. Gold is edging higher, anticipating stimulus from the ECB and perhaps the Fed.
Oil. 84.03, +0.12. Oil closed flat on the session. Two weeks moving laterally at support. It is trying to get traction, and it is thus far unable to do so. Economic data in the US is terrible. Economic data in China is terrible. GDP is supposed to fall below 7% growth, and that is terrible for China. It may already be in recession right now. Europe is in recession. No need for oil, but China is still stockpiling it. They have been stockpiling gold at the lower price, and maybe they still are. Oil is down, so China has been stockpiling oil now. That makes sense. They buy low to use it when it is higher in price. That is something we have not seemed to get a handle on in the US. We buy at the high of the market and then end up just doing nothing when it is low. Because everything is good then, right? There is no need to put it in the SPRO when times are good because no one thinks about oil as something to worry about when the money is flowing. But I digress.
TECHNICAL SUMMARY
Volume. NASDAQ +20.5%, 1.95B; NYSE +17.3%, 850M. It was an expiration Friday, and volume was up.
Breadth. NASDAQ +2.2:1; NYSE 2.3:1. Advancing issues were okay. Nothing great. It was expiration Friday, so you cannot take a whole lot away from the volume numbers.
THE CHARTS
SP500. SP500 gapped up and moved through the 50 day EMA on strong volume. You have to discount it, obviously. It broke out of its inverted head and shoulders. Nice move. It is already at resistance at 1343. That is right at the February 2011 peak, and that was the high before the all-time high post bear market in May of that year. That was broken in the spring of this year. It is an important level. It has already rallied back to this level that we were looking for it to hold as a trading range. That makes it a key test. I think it will just break back into the range, but the market is the final arbiter of what it does, of course. They do look strong, however .
DJ30. DJ30 also looks strong. A break higher through the 50 day EMA as well as back into its range as well. This move puts it right at the double tops from July. Important level. It is just below the May 2011 high that marks the top of this range. This is very important for the Dow. It has a high that it has to break through around 12,875 or so. It is looking good to do that. It could conceivably challenge the highs from March and May.
NASDAQ. NASDAQ had a good session, but it is not breaking out yet. It moved up into its resistance range. No big deal. Still below the 50 day EMA. That is at 2892, roughly 19 to 20 points hither. Good start. We will see if it can break out next week and follow the other indices higher.
SP600. SP600 had a nice move as well. No breakout here either. It bounced off of the 200 day EMA, still below a key resistance point and the 50 day EMA.
SOX. SOX will show you the same picture. It was up on the day. Still working on a right shoulder to its inverted head and shoulders. NASDAQ, SP600, and the SOX are all lagging.
What is the theory? Again, we get a rally. Already we are moving up to key levels. We come up and bump into some of these interim highs and lows from early in the year. Then we see how the market really performs. It is showing good momentum here. We will see just how strong the move is after the election. I still think we have upside ahead.
LEADERSHIP
We are seeing decent action. There are some good stocks making moves, and fortunately we already own some of them. They can build up gains for us without us having to chase. I always like to be in the driver's seat when other people decide to push our positions higher.
Retail. AMZN broke nicely after a higher low test over the past week. We will see if it can continue. It looks good. BBBY broke higher off of the 50 day EMA on Thursday, and it really extended the move on Friday. It gave a lot of it up. Somewhat disappointing, but it did all right.
Looking at the restaurants and grocery stores, WFM made a solid break over a key resistance level. Love it. A gap higher on volume. I know it is expiration Friday, but look at the volume on Wednesday as well. When it tested and recovered, it found a lot of buyers. That is a good signal. It jumped higher. EAT had a nice break higher. Two days after testing the financial, it is challenging the prior highs in its range. I like that. BWLD has been in a long consolidation, and it is finally breaking to the upside and looking pretty good.
We have some excellent moves out of retail. It is coming back around. Why would it do that? Because of stimulus. Financial markets like stimulus. Stimulus comes in, it pushes assets higher, and people actually do feel wealthier. They tend to go to the restaurants first when they feel a bit wealthier and their retirement accounts get a little bigger. I am not saying there is a big wealth effect, but that is something that just happens.
Financial. Financials are doing well. Why would they do well? Because when the Fed pumps stimulus into the economy, they get the money. They get to invest it. As we have seen, since 2009 they just put that money in the financial markets, they go higher, and they make money that way. BAC broke nicely to the upside on volume. It was a good week for JPM even though Jamie Dimon had to appear before Congress and fall on his own sword. The stock moved higher for four straight sessions, and it put together another gain on Friday. Thank you very much.
Let's look at some of the nontraditional financials. CME had a break higher on Friday. A nice flag test on the week after breaking higher. It came off the low, broke, tested, broke higher, and gapped to the upside on Monday. It tested through Thursday and broke higher again on Friday. Love it. MA had a gap higher above the recent highs from late May and early June. That puts it into a higher high position. That, of course, puts it in position to continue the run.
Internet travel. No complaints here. EXPE is moving back up. It tested the 10 day EMA and blasted to a new high on Friday. PCLN looks like it is making its own inverted head and shoulders after the twin tops spanning April and early May. There is a very solid move on Friday. We will see if it can break through that 50 day EMA.
Drugs/Healthcare. We have the usual suspects with respect to health care. NUVA was breaking out of its six-week pattern, posting a new high. HZNP broke higher off of its 50 day EMA on the week. An excellent run. OREX did not have anything outstanding, but it had a nice week. WMGI broke higher. We got some good action. It was not huge, but it continued solid.
Semiconductors. Semiconductors are lagging, but they still have some good positioning. BRCM has a pennant forming right at the 20 day EMA. Looks solid. SWKS had a lateral move, a bumpy, flat range. MACD was rallying even as the stock drifts to the side. Look at the volume picking up. I like that as well.
Summary: There are stocks in position to move. There are leaders, but it is still thin out there. They are working on it. On Wednesday and Thursday I said that markets when markets base and rally and base and rally, it gives stocks time to set up their patterns and break higher. This is a positive, obviously. The more it happens, the more life and the more legs that a rally has. We will continue to look at the leaders, and those will be the ones that we want to pick up any new positions on if the market can continue the rally next week.
THE ECONOMY
TO VIEW THE ECONOMY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Economy Summary Video
Every report missed expectations this past week. Lovely.
New York PMI hits the skids.
Empire Manufacturing, June (8:30): 2.3 actual versus 13.5 expected, 17.1 prior
After surging past expectations in May, the June plunge puts the index at the lowest in 7 months.
New Orders: 2.2 vs 8.2
Shipments: 4.8 versus 23.8
Prices: 19.6 versus 37.6
Six month outlooks fell from last month.
General business conditions: down to 23.1 for its fifth straight decline.
Questions: 43% said they planned to increase capital spending in the next 6 to 12 months. That is a positive as just 16% expected to reduce spending. Some positive waves coming through.
Industrial Production misses expectations, slips negative.
Industrial Production, May (9:15): -0.1% actual versus 0.1% expected, 1.0% prior (revised from 1.1%)
Capacity Utilization, May (9:15): 79.0% actual versus 79.1% expected, 79.2% prior
Not as negative as some would suggest. Very volatile, tailing off, but just a bit.
Great North suddenly not so ebullient.
Michigan Sentiment, Preliminary June (9:55): 74.1 actual versus 77.0 expected, 79.3 prior
Upset as Michigan Sentiment falls to a 6-month low and the biggest miss since 2/06?
Last time this low: December 2011 at 69.9.
Income losses reported by 1/3 of households.
Jobs prospects views turned negative for the first time since late 2011.
Expectations: 68.9 versus 71.8 expected, 74.8 in May. Lowest since December.
Fallout: Massive debt levels taking healthcare away from Greeks.
'It's a matter of life or death for us," says the head of the Greece cancer patient's association. The country's state hospitals are cutting of vital drugs, limiting non-urgent operations, and rationing even basic medical materials. Cancer patients call in pleading for pricey, now hard to find cancer drugs. "We're not talking about painkillers here; we've learned to live with physical pain. We need drugs to keep us alive."
Greeks have long had to give medical staff 'gifts' to get the best care. Now no amount of money it seems helps. Basic supplies are short in supply or are not available: cotton wool, catheters, examining table paper, gloves. Doctors say that in the chaos patients are slipping through the cracks. The fundamental problem with universal or national healthcare is exacerbated: patients show up for treatment but illnesses have progressed beyond the point of cure. Yet another Greek tragedy is occurring right now.
The problem: the government has been unable to pay drug and medical suppliers because it has no money. It is in arrears almost $1B in paying for the drug subsidies. Greece imports 100% of its medical products. It is a classic example of a 'we provide all' government and thus there is no need to develop any domestic healthcare know-how or invention. The state provides it all so what place does competition, and the rewards that arise as a result, have? None.
Problem is, when the government systems go down because of massive debts that it cannot pay and austerity now forced by those lending the money just so the country can continue running, there is no private sector to pick up the slack and provide services . . . at any cost.
This is what will happen in the rest of Europe and what will happen in the US if we do not, immediately, change our ways. At some point debt becomes so large it becomes inescapable and those holding the notes eventually have to call them. Of course they cannot be paid so the 'rich' nations walk away, having learned not to extend credit. The debtor nation, however, has nowhere to walk to. Its citizens are enslaved to a system that cannot help itself and it is up to the individuals to help themselves.
If we do not look at this and learn, we are fools and we have cursed our progeny.
THE MARKET
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 21.11; -0.57
VXN: 21.86; -2.16
VXO: 20.85; -1.67
VIX. The VIX was down Thursday and Friday with a bounce to the upside. It rallied in May, obviously, when the stock market sold off. It peaked and has set up a head and shoulders just as the indices have set up an inverted head and shoulders. There is symmetry in the market, and it makes sense because it is supposed to be an inverse move. If the market rallies, we see a breakdown and fill of this gap. Maybe even lower to support near 18. That makes sense. We would start watching around 17 and 18 for a reversal in VIX and thus a reversal in the market. This plays into our theme that the market rallies but then does not break out and comes back down. We will see. More on that in a few minutes.
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.02; -0.01
Bulls versus Bears
This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market, then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market does not have the cash to drive it higher.
Bulls: 37.2% versus 34.0%. Big jump after breaking below the key 35% threshold. It was a hard drop to 34 from 39.3% as economic reality and a choppy stock market hit, but the firming has the bulls lifting their heads again. Off the 55+ level hit in late February. That was the highest level since April and May of 2011, the peak of the post-bear market high. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. To be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.
Bears: 26.6% versus 26.6%. Bears were not so sanguine, holding steady. Interesting how they are stuck on 26.6%. They fell to 24.5% the prior week from 26.6%. Still nowhere near a 35% high reading that would really start things upside, or at least set a better foundation. It is always the best signal of bulls and bears cross paths so to speak. Not bad given the bulls action, but not the best signal. Over 35% is the threshold to be really be a good upside indicator. For reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.
NASDAQ
Stats: +36.47 points (+1.29%) to close at 2872.8
Volume: 1.945B (+20.51%)
Up Volume: 1.65B (+610M)
Down Volume: 330.61M (-247.06M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2.17 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 2.3 to 1
New Highs: 65 (+28)
New Lows: 45 (-32)
SP500/NYSE
Stats: +13.74 points (+1.03%) to close at 1342.84
NYSE Volume: 850.425M (+17.3%)
Up Volume: 3.38B (+520M)
Down Volume: 874.88M (+106.19M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2.33 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 2.38 to 1
New Highs: 75 (+13)
New Lows: 39 (-20)
DJ30
Stats: +115.26 points (+0.91%) to close at 12767.17
Volume DJ30: 284M shares Friday versus 128M shares Thursday.
MONDAY
There is a big week ahead, but it does not start big in terms of scheduled economic data. The NAHB Housing Market Index is on Monday. Big deal. Housing starts are on Tuesday. That is always something to watch. Everyone always wants to know how many homes are being built. We have the FOMC on Wednesday. It has a two-day meeting, and it will make a decision on rates. I do not think it will change anything. It has not telegraphed a move yet. It would be a surprise if the Fed offered some kind of new stimulus in terms of Quantitative Easing. It may offer a continuation of Operation Twist because it has talked about doing so. Will that do anything for the market? Not really. We are Twisting right now. We are doing okay, but we are rallying on the thoughts of more Fed action and what will happen in the ECB, not a continuation of Operation Twist. We want more liquidity. Markets desperately thirst for liquidity. That is what they really want. Operation Twist does nothing but keep it there. It does not mainline the markets with big bigger, better, and bolder stimulus.
We have jobless claims on Thursday along with Existing Home Sales and the Philly Fed. Those are important but, ahead of all that, we have the Greek elections. Will it bring the Greeks together, or will it send them to the streets? Everybody will be watching, and world markets will trade off of that. No one likes riots in the streets. That tends to have a chilling effect on financial rallies, but, as I noted before, will it really matter? We know that we will have a concerted action if there are problems. If there is a problem, they will try to paper over it or liquidate themselves over it.
We like what we see in our markets. Maybe there was over-exuberance coming into the weekend. Maybe not. I tend to think that it will be able to continue the move higher because there will be more liquidity. Financial markets thrive on liquidity. The ECB looks like it has gotten over its aversion to cutting rates further. The US has been urging the ECB to follow its steps in more of a TARP program and/or a Quantitative Easing program. That will just ratchet up debts higher and higher and make it impossible to pay as we have seen with the problems in Greece and the health care system. But, for now, that simply means that the markets get more liquidity. They love liquidity.
We expect an additional rally. I am sticking my neck out on this, and I may get my head chopped off. What do you do when you have markets set up the way they are? When you have good stocks moving well? We let good positions run. We kept some downside in play in case things do fall out through the bottom. We picked up a modicum of upside on Friday, adding to some already good positions.
We went through some leadership stocks, and we have seen some good moves. We see others setting up to move. Frankly, we will have some plays on those. It may be a bit late in the rally. We are two days up, but that is not up a week. We have seen a three-week selloff and then a base. We could see a three-week move to the upside. That is the symmetry of the market. It takes it back near these prior highs before it rolls back over. That is a money-making proposition to the upside.
That is how we play it. We look for some more upside this coming week. We have some downside ready. We already have some downside plays. If we see some ripe ones, we can put them on as well. We will look for a further rally, and we take it for what it is: just a further rally. If it proves otherwise, that is great and we will be happy to have it. But with all of the trouble with the economies in the world and how stimulus has not turned things around, we do not get too excited about a new breakout.
Remember, stimulus has waning effects the more it is used. We already saw QE2 have less effect than the first, and then Twist had less effect than QE2. While you get an initial burst, the longevity of that burst and the amplitude of the burst is the key. There were big moves early on with the first Quantitative Easing. There was a good, solid move on the second. Twist was just so-so. If we only get Twist, that is not good. But that is Wednesday, and we will see what happens by then. Coming out of the Greek election, I do not think we will get a major selloff. Again, we could be wrong; the market will tell us what's what. We like what we see, and we have to play what the market is giving us.
I will see you on Monday and see what kind of mess the weekend made and how the stock market reacts. Have a great Father's Day weekend!
Support and resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 2836.33
Resistance:
2841 is the February 2011 peak
2862 is the 2007 peak
2879 is the July 2011 peak
2888 is the May 2011 peak and PRIOR post-bear market high
The 50 day EMA at 2893
2900 is the March 2012 low
2910 is the recent March 2012 low
3000 is the February 2012 post-bear market high
3026 from 10/2000 low
3042 from 5/2000 low
3090 is the mid-March interim high
3134 is the March 2012 post-bear market peak
3227 is the April 2000 intraday low
3401 is the May 2000 closing low
Support:
2816 is the early April 2011 peak.
The 200 day SMA at 2774
2754 is the October 2011 high
2706 to 2705 is the April 2011 low and the February 2011 and consolidation low (bottom of the trading range) 2723 to 2705 is the range of support at the bottom of the January to May trading range
2686 is the January 2011 closing low
2676 is the January 2010 low and the December 2011 peak
2645-2650ish from December 2010 consolidation
2643 is the September 2011 high
2612 is the late August 2011 peak
2603 is the March 2011 intraday low (post-Japan low)
2599 is the June 2011 low and NASDAQ
2593 is the November intraday high
2580 is the November 2010 closing high
2555 is the mid-August 2011 peak
2535 is the November island reversal gap point
2441 is the November 2011 low
S&P 500: Closed at 1329.10
Resistance:
1332 is the early March 2011 peak
1340 is the early April 2011 peak
The 50 day EMA at 1338
1344 is the February 2011 peak
1357 is the July 2011 peak
1371 is the May 2011 peak, the post-bear market high
1378 is the February 2012 peak
1422.38 is the Post-bear market high (March 2012)
1425 from May 2008 closing highs
1433 from August 2007 closing lows
1440 from November 2007 closing lows
Support:
1295 to 1294 is the April 2011 low and the February 2011 consolidation low (bottom of the trading range)
1293 is the October 2011 peak
The 200 day SMA at 1291
1275 is the January 2010 low, early January 2011 peak
1267 is the December 2011 peak
1258 is June 2011 intraday low
1255 is the late December 2010 consolidation range
1249 is the March 2011 low (post-Japan)
1235 is the mid-December 2010 consolidation low
1231 is the late August 2011 peak
1227 is the November 2010 peak
1220 is the April 2010 peak
1209 is the mid-August 2011 high
1196 is the November 2010 consolidation peak
1178-1180 is the October 2010/November 2010 consolidation low
1158 is the November 2011 low
1131 - 1127 from August 2010 base peak.
1119 is the early August closing low
1109 is the mid-September 2010 gap up point
1101 is the August 2011 low
1099 from the mid-July interim peak
1075 is the October 2011 intraday low
Dow: Closed at 12,496.38
Resistance:
The 50 day EMA at 12,665.92
12,716 is the April 2012 closing low
12,754 is the July intraday peak
12,876 is the May high
13,056 is the February 2012 high
13,058 from the May 2008 peak on that bounce in the selling
13,297 is the April 2012, post bear market high
13,668 from 12-2007 peak
13,692 from 6-2007 peak
14,022 from 7-07 peak
Support:
12,391 is the February 2011 peak
The 200 day SMA at 12,305
12,284 is the October 2011 peak
12,258 is the December 2011 peak
12,110 from the March 2007 closing low
12,094 is the April 2011 low
The June low at 11,897 (closing)
11,734 from 11-98 peak
11,717 is the late August 2011 peak
The August low at 11,702
11,555 is the March low
11,452 is the November 2010 peak
11,178 from November 2010
10,978 is the bottom of the November 2010 consolidation
10,750 from September 2010
10,720 is the August closing low
10,705-710 from January 2010 peak
10,694-700 from August 2010 peak
Economic Calendar
June 12 - Tuesday
- Export Prices ex-ag., May (8:30): -0.5% actual versus 0.2% prior (no revisions)
- Import Prices ex-oil, May (8:30): -0.1% actual versus 0.2% prior (revised from 0.1%)
- Treasury Budget, May (14:00): -$124.6B actual versus -$125.0B expected, -$59.2B prior (revised from -$57.6B)
June 13 - Wednesday
- MBA Mortgage Index, 06/09 (7:00): 18.0% actual versus 1.3% prior
- Retail Sales, May (8:30): -0.2% actual versus -0.2% expected, -0.2% prior (revised from 0.1%)
- Retail Sales ex-auto, May (8:30): -0.4% actual versus 0.0% expected, -0.3% prior (revised from 0.1%)
- PPI, May (8:30): -1.0% actual versus -0.7% expected, -0.2% prior
- Core PPI, May (8:30): 0.2% actual versus 0.2% expected, 0.2% prior
- Business Inventories, April (10:00): 0.4% actual versus 0.2% expected, 0.3% prior
- Crude Inventories, 06/09 (10:30): -0.191M actual versus -0.111M prior
June 14 - Thursday
- Initial Claims, 06/09 (8:30): 386K actual versus 375K expected, 380K prior (revised from 377K)
- Continuing Claims, 06/02 (8:30): 3278K actual versus 3275K expected, 3311K prior (revised from 3293K)
- CPI, May (8:30): -0.3% actual versus -0.2% expected, 0.0% prior
- Core CPI, May (8:30): 0.2% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.2% prior
- Current Account Bala, Q1 (8:30): -$137.3B actual versus -$130.9B expected, -$124.1B prior
June 15 - Friday
- Empire Manufacturing, June (8:30): 2.3 actual versus 13.5 expected, 17.1 prior
- Net Long-Term TIC Fl, April (9:00): $25.6B actual versus $36.0B prior (revised from $36.2B)
- Industrial Production, May (9:15): -0.1% actual versus 0.1% expected, 1.0% prior (revised from 1.1%)
- Capacity Utilization, May (9:15): 79.0% actual versus 79.1% expected, 79.2% prior
- Michigan Sentiment, Preliminary June (9:55): 74.1 actual versus 77.0 expected, 79.3 prior
June 18 - Monday
- NAHB Housing Market Index, June (10:00): 28 expected, 29 prior
June 19 - Tuesday
- Housing Starts, May (8:30): 719K expected, 717K prior
- Building Permits, May (8:30): 725K expected, 715K prior
June 20 - Wednesday
- MBA Mortgage Index, 06/16 (7:00): 18.0% prior
- Crude Inventories, 06/16 (10:30): -0.191M prior
- FOMC Rate Decision, June (24:30): 0.25% expected, 0.25% prior
June 21 - Thursday
- Initial Claims, 06/16 (8:30): 380K expected, 386K prior
- Continuing Claims, 06/09 (8:30): 3278K expected, 3278K prior
- Existing Home Sales, May (10:00): 4.56M expected, 4.62M prior
- Philadelphia Fed, June (10:00): -0.2 expected, -5.8 prior
- Leading Indicators, May (10:00): 0.0% expected, -0.1% prior
- FHFA Housing Price Index, April (10:00): 1.8% prior |
