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Politics : American Presidential Politics and foreign affairs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: greatplains_guy who wrote (52182)6/22/2012 3:07:15 AM
From: greatplains_guy3 Recommendations  Respond to of 71588
 
Why Obama Will Lose in a Landslide
Wayne Allyn Root
May 30, 2012

Most political predictions are made by biased pollsters, pundits, or prognosticators who are either rooting for Republicans or Democrats. I am neither. I am a former Libertarian Vice Presidential nominee, and a well-known Vegas oddsmaker with one of the most accurate records of predicting political races.

Neither Obama nor Romney are my horses in the race. I believe both Republicans and Democrats have destroyed the U.S. economy and brought us to the edge of economic disaster. My vote will go to Libertarian Presidential candidate Gary Johnson in November, whom I believe has the most fiscally conservative track record of any Governor in modern U.S. political history. Without the bold spending cuts of a Gary Johnson or Ron Paul, I don’t believe it’s possible to turnaround America.

But as an oddsmaker with a pretty remarkable track record of picking political races, I play no favorites. I simply use common sense to call them as I see them. Back in late December I released my New Years Predictions. I predicted back then- before a single GOP primary had been held, with Romney trailing for months to almost every GOP competitor from Rick Perry to Herman Cain to Newt- that Romney would easily rout his competition to win the GOP nomination by a landslide. I also predicted that the Presidential race between Obama and Romney would be very close until election day. But that on election day Romney would win by a landslide similar to Reagan-Carter in 1980.

Understanding history, today I am even more convinced of a resounding Romney victory. 32 years ago at this moment in time, Reagan was losing by 9 points to Carter. Romney is right now running even in polls. So why do most pollsters give Obama the edge?

First, most pollsters are missing one ingredient- common sense. Here is my gut instinct. Not one American who voted for McCain 4 years ago will switch to Obama. Not one in all the land. But many millions of people who voted for an unknown Obama 4 years ago are angry, disillusioned, turned off, or scared about the future. Voters know Obama now- and that is a bad harbinger.

Now to an analysis of the voting blocks that matter in U.S. politics:

*Black voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. His endorsement of gay marriage has alienated many black church-going Christians. He may get 88% of their vote instead of the 96% he got in 2008. This is not good news for Obama.

*Hispanic voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. If Romney picks Rubio as his VP running-mate the GOP may pick up an extra 10% to 15% of Hispanic voters (plus lock down Florida). This is not good news for Obama.

*Jewish voters. Obama has been weak in his support of Israel. Many Jewish voters and big donors are angry and disappointed. I predict Obama's Jewish support drops from 78% in 2008 to the low 60’s. This is not good news for Obama.

*Youth voters. Obama’s biggest and most enthusiastic believers from 4 years ago have graduated into a job market from hell. Young people are disillusioned, frightened, and broke- a bad combination. The enthusiasm is long gone. Turnout will be much lower among young voters, as will actual voting percentages. This not good news for Obama.

*Catholic voters. Obama won a majority of Catholics in 2008. That won’t happen again. Out of desperation to please women, Obama went to war with the Catholic Church over contraception. Now he is being sued by the Catholic Church. Majority lost. This is not good news for Obama.

*Small Business owners. Because I ran for Vice President last time around, and I'm a small businessman myself, I know literally thousands of small business owners. At least 40% of them in my circle of friends, fans and supporters voted for Obama 4 years ago to “give someone different a chance.” I warned them that he would pursue a war on capitalism and demonize anyone who owned a business...that he’d support unions over the private sector in a big way...that he'd overwhelm the economy with spending and debt. My friends didn’t listen. Four years later, I can't find one person in my circle of small business owner friends voting for Obama. Not one. This is not good news for Obama.

*Blue collar working class whites. Do I need to say a thing? White working class voters are about as happy with Obama as Boston Red Sox fans feel about the New York Yankees. This is not good news for Obama.

*Suburban moms. The issue isn’t contraception…it’s having a job to pay for contraception. Obama’s economy frightens these moms. They are worried about putting food on the table. They fear for their children’s future. This is not good news for Obama.

*Military Veterans. McCain won this group by 10 points. Romney is winning by 24 points. The more our military vets got to see of Obama, the more they disliked him. This is not good news for Obama.

Add it up. Is there one major group where Obama has gained since 2008? Will anyone in America wake up on election day saying “I didn’t vote for Obama 4 years ago. But he’s done such a fantastic job, I can’t wait to vote for him today.” Does anyone feel that a vote for Obama makes their job more secure?

Forget the polls. My gut instincts as a Vegas oddsmaker and common sense small businessman tell me this will be a historic landslide and a world-class repudiation of Obama’s radical and risky socialist agenda. It's Reagan-Carter all over again.

But I’ll give Obama credit for one thing- he is living proof that familiarity breeds contempt.

townhall.com



To: greatplains_guy who wrote (52182)6/22/2012 7:27:52 PM
From: DuckTapeSunroof  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 71588
 
End the Subsidies of Fossil Fuel

By the Editors Jun 21, 2012 6:30 PM ET
Bloomberg
bloomberg.com

There may be little reason to hope the Rio+20 meeting in Brazil this week will lead to major global action against climate change. World leaders have skipped it. The draft agreement the delegates from 190 countries have written is rightly criticized as weak.

Yet it turns out that one specific climate challenge -- how to eliminate subsidies for fossil fuels such as oil, gas and coal -- is attracting extraordinary interest in Rio de Janeiro and might at least inspire countries to take small but significant steps toward reducing greenhouse-gas emissions.

These rising subsidies cost the world $409 billion in 2010, according to the International Energy Agency. If no efforts are made to curtail them, they could reach $660 billion by 2020, 0.7 percent of global gross domestic product.

What’s at least as bad is that the subsidies keep the price of fossil fuels below market rates -- so low as to discourage measures to improve energy efficiency. Getting rid of them could lower total energy demand by 4.1 percent by 2020, the IEA estimates.

Simply ending the subsidies would boost the price of power, however, and leaders naturally want to avoid a popular pushback, whether at the polls or in the streets, especially at a time of financial hardship. That is not the only option.

Our corporate colleague Michael Liebreich, the chief executive of Bloomberg New Energy Finance, has devised a way to phase out fossil-fuel subsidies and, in the process, replace them with financial support for energy-efficiency efforts and renewable power. It’s a strategy that could work in countries large and small -- without provoking backlash.

Here’s how it would work: A government would continue providing its energy subsidies for three to 10 more years, but transform them into credits. The recipients would be free to spend these, at least in part, on renewable forms of energy. Where credits could be directed to individual consumers, they could be spent on improvements such as insulation, efficient appliances and rooftop solar panels. Because the credits would not favor one kind of power over another, many renewables would be able, for the first time, to compete strongly against fossil fuels.

Wind energy, for instance, could, on a level playing field, cost as little as 6.5 cents per kilowatt-hour, BNEF estimates. That is about the same as power from new coal plants and, outside the U.S., cheaper than natural gas. Biomass, geothermal and hydro power can also be competitive with coal. And although solar power on a large scale remains relatively expensive, rooftop systems can provide cheaper-than-retail power in many markets. In the developing world, solar lanterns cost less to operate than kerosene ones.

Governments could pay out these “sunset credits,” as Liebreich calls them, in various ways. Where subsidies have been provided to consumers, they could be replaced by rebates on energy bills or by monthly or quarterly vouchers, redeemable with retailers and installers of renewable power or equipment that improves efficiency. If consumers are made aware that the credits will eventually end, they will have the incentive to invest in strategies that ultimately lower their household energy bills.

Those retailers and installers who are paid with sunset credits would in turn surrender them to a redeeming agent -- the government, perhaps, or a bank or other lending institution -- to be reimbursed the market price for their products and services.

Where subsidies are traditionally given to providers such as electric utilities, those companies would receive the credits and could either pass them along to their customers to spend on efficiency, or invest them in renewable-energy generating capacity or in their own efficiency measures.

In places where governments subsidize gasoline or diesel, credits could be spent on transportation alternatives. Delivered in the form of vouchers, debit cards or mobile-phone banking credits, they could be spent on public transportation fares, more fuel-efficient vehicles, even bicycles.

It’s easy to see, too, how sunset credits could attract investment in renewable power and in technologies that increase energy efficiency, as banks and other lenders provide upfront capital in return for the promise of credits down the line. The lenders could either redeem the credits or perhaps sell them to pension funds, life-insurance companies and other long-term asset holders, and a new credit market would be formed.

Setting up such a system would take effort and money, it’s true. And it would certainly be complicated; mechanisms would be needed to protect against fraud, for example. But such investments are worthwhile if they enable governments to stop spending public money to make fossil fuels unnaturally cheap. The draft agreement for the Rio+20 meeting only vaguely commits countries to phasing out the subsidies. Sunset credits offer a way for them to make it happen.

Read more opinion online from Bloomberg View. Subscribe to receive a daily e-mail highlighting new View editorials, columns and op-ed articles.

Today’s highlights: the editors on what a shock-and-awe solution to Europe’s crisis would look like; Jonathan Alter on Republican voter-suppression efforts; Stephen L. Carter on the Supreme Court’s legitimacy; William Pesek on Japan’s debt and nuclear power plants; Jonathan Weil on JPMorgan gains that offset its trading loss; Carl Pope on bringing clean energy innovation to the global poor; Christopher Swift on defeating al-Qaeda in Yemen.

To contact the Bloomberg View editorial board: view@bloomberg.net.