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To: Glenn Petersen who wrote (1472)	6/25/2012 5:06:02 PM
From: Sam	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3363

Interesting data point, re: the EU/Italy the chart below illustrates, the bulk of the deterioration of Italy's trade deficit came from oil first (€60bn since 1999), and China second (€20bn). Excluding China and oil, Italy today runs a comfortable trade surplus that is almost twice as high as it was in 1999 in nominal terms, and that has remained roughly stable as % of GDP (3% to 4%). ELMAT: Lower oil price is a bonanza for EZ. Thus, the idea that the rise of Southern European trade deficits was essentially due to (or reflected in) intra-Eurozone trade imbalances is largely a myth. The additional consumption of Italian and Spanish households benefitted oil-producing countries, China and other Asian countries first and foremost. And viewed from the German side of the equation, only 13% of the rise of German exports of the last decade went to Southern Europe. The additional consumption of Italian and Spanish households benefitted oil-producing countries, China and other Asian countries first and foremost. And viewed from Message 28227311 And another post on Italy economic stats: Message 28226164