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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sam who wrote (56666)	6/24/2012 10:20:25 AM
From: Sam	1 Recommendation Respond to of 95378

This is from Schaeffer's "Trading Floor Blog," referred to in the previous post. Did Goldman Sachs Just Call the Bottom? It wasn't that long ago Goldman Sachs was singing a different tune by Ryan Detrick 6/22/2012 9:38 AM One of the big market-moving items from yesterday (and there were several) was a call-out of Goldman Sachs that clients should build short positions in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) with a downside target of 1,285. My, oh my -- how things quickly can change. It wasn't that long ago that Goldman was calling this the best buy in a generation and saying how investors should rotate out of bonds and into stocks. Well, that call was within a few days of the peak so far this year. The big question now is: did Goldman Sachs just call a bottom? I don't know, but this is sure one worth following. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

To: Sam who wrote (56666)

6/24/2012 11:06:54 AM

From: Return to Sender

3 Recommendations Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 95378

Weekend Stock Market Analysis

Amateur Investors Weekend Market Analysis (6/23/12)

http://www.amateur-investor.net/Weekend_Market_Analysis_June_23_2012.htm

Back in late March I mentioned from the early 1960's through 2011 there had only been "5" occurrences when the following conditions have been met.

1. The S&P 500 has closed "5" consecutive days in a row above its +2.0 Bollinger Band.
2. The Yield on the 10 Year Bond was higher than it was 6 months ago.
3. The Rate on the 90 Day TBILL was higher than it was 6 months ago.

The table below shows the dates of when all of the conditions mentioned above have occurred in the past. As you can see the last occurrence prior to the most recent one on March 19th happened way back in August of 1987.

5 Days	90 Day TBILL	10 Year Yield
Above +2.0	Higher than	Higher than
Bollinger Band	6 Months Ago	6 Months Ago
3/19/2012	Y	Y
8/12/1987	Y	Y
11/18/1980	Y	Y
9/26/1973	Y	Y
5/5/1969	Y	Y
11/9/1961	Y	Y

Meanwhile if we look at the prior occurrences, along with the performance in the S&P 500 and the Dow over the next year, the market has trended strongly in one direction. As mentioned above the last event occurred in August of 1987 as both the S&P 500 and Dow peaked in August (points B). This was then followed by the 1987 crash in which the S&P 500 lost 36% of its value and the Dow 41% during the next 2 months.

The next occurrence was back in November of 1980 as the S&P 500 peaked in November (point B) while the Dow was able to trend slightly higher (just over 2%) through April of 1981 (point C). This was then followed by a 28% correction during the next 21 months in the S&P 500 while the Dow lost 25%.

Meanwhile the next event occurred in September of 1973 as both the S&P 500 and Dow peaked a month later in October (points B). This was then followed by a 44% correction in the S&P 500 and a 43% drop in the Dow during the next 11 months.

The next occurrence was in May of 1969 as both the S&P 500 and Dow peaked in May (points B). This was then followed by a 35% correction in the S&P 500 during the next 18 months and a 36% correction in the Dow.

Finally the last occurrence was in November of 1961 as the S&P 500 peaked the following month in December (point B) while the Dow peaked in November (point C). This was then followed by a 28% correction over the next 6 months in the S&P 500 and a 26% correction in the Dow.

Now if we look at a current chart of the S&P 500 it peaked in early April at 1422 (point D) which was followed by an 11% correction. As mentioned above previous events have seen larger corrections ranging from 28% to 44%. Applying standard retracement levels ranging from 38.2% to 78.6% from the March 2009 low of 667 to the April high of 1422 this leads to a potential range of values from 1133 to 828 if the current occurrence acts like prior events.