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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (56675)	6/24/2012 8:02:01 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	2 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95368

That was a tremendous post RtS. It should be selected as a candidate for "post of the year" for Silicon Investor. Thanks for all the work in putting that post together and sharing it with all the readers of this thread. IMO sector analysis is very instructive. At the moment we have just gone through a phase of retrenchment by the semi(s) for the past 3 months after a good runup from last fall through the 1st quarter of this year. Because of all the postings here on a weekly basis, the history is there for all to see in a lot of detail. The last 4 weeks has seen a struggle by the semi(s) to "flatten out" and perhaps try to start another uptrend. For several months now, earnings estimates for Cur Yr and Nxt Yr have been trending to the downside. Nothing serious yet, because most analysts have been looking for a stronger 2nd half for 2012 going into 2013. I thought that might be true as well, but now I am not so sure after MU released their 3rd quarter earnings this past week. Their consensus estimate was for a -0.20 number, but they missed by 0.12 to the downside making the actual number -0.32. This miss to the downside by that magnitude caused consensus estimates for Cur Yr and Nxt Yr to be reduced by -0.36 and -0.35 to -1.01 for 2012 and only 0.23 for 2013. A picture of Mu's situation is shown below. Most of the time the semis are out leading the market, both on the upside and downside. Right now the sector has been in a downtrend, trying the past 3 to 5 weeks to find a bottom and mount a comeback, but maybe this is just a "pause" on a continuing downtrend.

To: Return to Sender who wrote (56675)	6/25/2012 10:51:15 AM
From: Kirk ©	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95368

Well, now there are 11 posts in my "Keepers".... congratulations! It is really nice to see the sector info along with Fidelity's business cycle graph all on one post. Thanks. Oh yes I am sure we will see another bear market but hitting new highs on poor market breadth is not out of the question first: That is the whole trouble in a nutshell. Also, if you looked at charts of Amazon.com vs Intel in the summer of 2000, would you have guessed that Intel would be a value stock today with a nice dividend and tiny PE while Amazon is still valued on future expectations? I'm pleased with taking a lot of profits in Intel in 1999 and 2000 and holding out for $20 recently to buy the shares back but I probably would have made a ton more money selling ALL my Intel at the very top in 2000 and buying Amazon. What is odd, if you price Amazon similar to how you value Intel, I think Intel would be higher. Facebook's Valuation Vs. Proven Internet Companies This chart shows Intel and Amazon with dividends reinvested. It spent more time than the chart indicates under $20... Here it is without dividends (hope this works and updates) You and many others talk about stocks bottoming when the PE is around 7 as they did in past bear markets. I keep that mind often but how do we figure that PE with the safe rate of return of CDs or Treasuries? Historical CD Rates The raw data here Raw CD Rate Data shows you could get 12% in a CD in 1974.... Hell, today you are lucky to get 0.35% without swapping banks to chase rates. I can get nearly 10 times that with Intel and AMAT stock... so I've been buying on weakness... and hope to hold through any bear markets where I can reinvest the dividends in cheaper shares. My grandfather retired around 1974 and I remember two ideas he told me that were key: #1 My parents generation were morons for giving him so much in Social Security that he broke even in months yet I'd be lucky to see any of the Ponzi scheme money #2 He retired when the income from his stocks gave he and my grandmother enough cash flow to live the life they wanted for retirement. I argued with him constantly but I think his two ideas about retirement were spot on.

To: Return to Sender who wrote (56675)	6/26/2012 8:35:05 AM
From: dvdw©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95368

i LIKED THIS graphic FROM YOUR POST....is good to see the use of Probability waves showing up in finance. Business Cycle and Relative Stock Performance The following chart shows a typical business cycle and the points at which various economic sectors tend to outperform the broader market. Click any number in the chart to learn about the cyclical characteristics of a particular industry.

To: Return to Sender who wrote (56675)	6/30/2012 2:03:45 PM
From: The Ox	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95368

To the thread: (since I haven't read past this post and there are at least another hundred posts to read, please give me a pass if this read's like "so last week" <g>) Hi RtS, I have finally started to catch up on the WSEA thread and hit this post. Like many others, I think it's a great post but I would like to add a few things to the discussion. First, the business cycle graph in your post is SO last century <vbg>. At least some of the proper questions are asked before it's presented: Will history repeat or is it being altered by current factors? One of the major factors that is continually changing is the fact that the Medical/Healthcare industry is becoming a larger and larger portion of the total economy here in the US and in most of the developed world. I believe the current figure is one sixth of the total US economy and growing. This will continue to grow, as first, the baby boomers age much longer than their parents and then their children will similarly age significantly longer than the boomers. This may not directly change business cycles within other industries but it will continue to change (slowly and subtly) the spending habits of consumers. Also, as someone previously posted, we are at historic lows in bond yields and this has substantially paused or completely altered the spending activity in almost every industry. Next add in that we've had 2 major market crashes within the last dozen years. The second one, so (relatively) quickly on the heals of the previous one has completely altered the sentiment of investors. Lastly, we have new media to contend with. From the internet to CNBC and "Fox News", the places where investors get their information has multiplied by geometric proportions. In many cases, the "news" (if you can call it that) is simply a sound bite or at best 10% of the "real story". You have people like Cramer shouting things like this week's rant: "sell any and every tech company accept AAPL". Millions of people are watching his antics in "real-time", so plenty become lemmings being led to the slaughter. Two months ago it was sell anything to do with China...etc...and the beat goes on..... I agree with you completely that we are not anywhere near a "long term bottom". At best we are near a short term bottom that is a correction within the trend off the early 2009 lows. If we look at the long term chart of the S+P, I suggest looking at the move out of the 1987 "crash" and look at the 1990 correction, with they eye on the way the market moved over the next decade. Corrections showed up but the "significant bottoms" were not the result of a massive bear market, as in 2002-03 and 2008-09.

To: Return to Sender who wrote (56675)

7/28/2012 5:50:46 PM

From: Return to Sender

2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95368

From Briefing.com: Weekly Recap - Week ending 27-Jul-12Dow +187.73 at 13075.7, Nasdaq +64.84 at 2958.09, S&P +25.95 at 1385.97

Today's session was an extension of Thursday's rally initiated by Mario Draghi's comments aimed at restoring investor confidence in the euro zone. The 1.9% advance in the S&P 500 turned the index positive on the week.

Advanced GDP for the second quarter suggested the economy grew at a 1.5% rate when an increase of 1.2% had been expected. The first quarter chain deflator reportedly increased by 1.6%, which is what had been anticipated. Equities surged to highs this afternoon on reports that cited the ECB’s Draghi as saying he is considering bond buys, a rate cut, and a new LTRO program.

Financial stocks contributed to the broad market rally with Citigroup (C 27.30, +1.02) and Goldman Sachs (GS 101.64, +3.58) advancing by 3.9% and 3.7% respectively. Health care was one of the top sectors today with Gilead Sciences (GILD 55.50, +3.82) outperforming the rest of the pack. The company beat on both earnings and revenues while indicating progress in developing an improved hepatitis C treatment.

Expedia (EXPE 55.21, +9.50) was the top S&P 500 performer, up nearly 21% after earnings and revenue surprised to the upside.

Starbucks (SBUX 47.42, -4.98) and Amazon (AMZN 237.32, +17.31) both reported disappointing earnings. Despite negative results from the two, their stocks saw drastically different market reaction. Down 9.5%, Starbucks was the main S&P 500 laggard on the day. Amazon however, was one of the session leaders, up 7.9%.

European markets ended Friday on a positive note with Spain's IBEX gaining 3.9% and Italy's MIB posting a 2.9% advance. Afternoon buying pushed France's CAC to a 2.3% gain.

The yield on Spain's 10-yr government debt ended the week at 6.74% after declining by 18 basis points.

Lifted by Mario Draghi's comments, the euro posted an advance on the week, settling around 1.2300.

A busy week of earnings and European volatility.

Looking back on the week, Monday started with reports suggesting Greece may see its aid cut off if the country fails to meet its commitments. Both Italy and Spain announced short-selling bans which had their U.S. listings under pressure. Traders continued to watch peripheral yields as both the Italian and Spanish 10-yr yields were up close to 20 basis points at their respective 6.31% and 7.40%., during the day. In corporate news, McDonald's (MCD 89.18, +0.18) missed expectations as headwinds from overseas and rising costs of food products weighed on results. The S&P 500 fell 0.8% on Monday. After the bell, Moody's placed the ‘AAA' ratings of Germany, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands on ‘negative watch.'

Tuesday saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq decline at nearly 1% each. The day's action was driven by slim earnings outperformance coupled with lowered full year guidance from multiple firms. China's HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5 (48.2 previous), but the reading still pointed to a contraction in the manufacturing sector of the world's second largest economy. After the bell, tech giant Apple (AAPL 585.16, +10.28) missed earnings and revenue estimates, and also slashed their guidance for the upcoming quarter. Apple fell over 4% the following day.

Wednesday began with mixed earnings and a new home sales reading that missed expectations. Egan Jones issued a downgrade of Italy's sovereign rating to CCC+ from B+. Earnings season continued as Zynga (ZNGA 3.09, -0.09) was one of the weakest performers following a second quarter loss and slowing revenue growth. Its shares fell almost 40%. The S&P 500 was near the unchanged mark on the day.

Thursday morning saw a sharp increase in futures at around 7:00 AM ET following comments from Mario Draghi. Mr. Draghi is being quoted as saying "sharing national sovereignty on EU level to come" and that the European Central Bank is "ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro." The S&P 500 soared nearly 2% on these comments. At day's end, the much anticipated earnings from Facebook (FB 23.70, -3.14) crossed the wires. The company reported earnings that were mostly in line, but the stock fell nearly 10% in the after-hours session as the company failed to give any guidance on the conference call.

Earnings season in full-swing; bottom-line beats remain prevalent while top-line performance weakens.

The second heavy week of second quarter earnings season has established a trend which started appearing last week. Nearly 300 companies in the S&P 500 have reported second quarter results thus far. Roughly two thirds of them have beat earnings estimates; this is down modestly over last quarter.

However, the Street is more focused on the fact that nearly 60% of the firms have missed top line expectations. That figure was below 30% at this juncture during the first quarter earnings season.

Next week, over 800 companies are expected to report quarterly earnings. This includes more than 100 from the S&P 500. A majority of the largest firms have already reported their quarterly results. As such, the statistics regarding earnings surprises tend to trail lower as the reporting season progresses.

Index	Started Week	Ended Week	Change	% Change	YTD %
DJIA	12822.57	13075.66	253.09	2.0	7.0
Nasdaq	2925.30	2958.09	32.79	1.1	13.5
S&P 500	1362.66	1385.97	23.31	1.7	10.2
Russell 2000	791.54	796.00	4.46	0.6	7.4

7:54AM Arch Coal beats by $0.08, beats on revs; reaffirms thermal coal sales volume forecast, lowers met coal forecast ( ACI) 5.26 : Reports Q2 (Jun) loss of $0.10 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.08 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of ($0.18); revenues rose 7.9% year/year to $1.06 bln vs the $1 bln consensus. Given continued uncertainties in the global macroeconomic environment, we are reducing our 2012 metallurgical coal sales expectations to approximately 7.5 million tons. We are managing the variables under our control, responding to competitive dynamics in the market and positioning the company for the inevitable rebound. We expect to see better balance in the second half of the year in the domestic thermal market given the ongoing rationalization of coal supply, increasing U.S. power demand, reduced coal-to-gas switching concerns and growing U.S. coal exports."

Co sees 2012 thermal sales volume of 128-134 and 7.5 mln tons of met coal (total = 135.5-141.5 mln). Co lowered met coal volume expectations to 7.5 mln, down from 8-8.5 mln.

7:07AM Celestica misses by $0.02, beats on revs; guides Q3 EPS below consensus, revs in-line; Celestica to Acquire D&H Manufacturing Company ( CLS) 7.30 : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.22 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.02 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.24; revenues fell 4.6% year/year to $1.74 bln vs the $1.7 bln consensus. Co issues downside EPS guidance for Q3, sees EPS of $0.17-0.23, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $0.24 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees Q3 revs of $1.6-1.7 bln vs. $1.7 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.

Co announced that it has agreed to acquire D&H Manufacturing Co, based in Fremont, California, a leading manufacturer of precision machined components and assemblies, primarily for the semiconductor capital equipment market. The co's operations provide manufacturing and engineering services, coupled with dedicated capacity and equipment for prototype and quick-turn support to some of the world's leading semiconductor capital equipment OEMs. The co generates ~$80 million in annual revenue, and currently employs approximately 350 people.

6:11AM Trina Solar issues statement on request to European Commission to initiate trade investigation; co believes that its transactions were made in accordance with fair trade practices ( TSL) 5.19 : Co offered the following statement regarding the EU ProSun Initiative Group's announcement that a formal request was rendered with the European Commission to investigate alleged unfair importation of solar products made in China: "Trina Solar's track record of technology innovation has contributed to great value creation for our global and European partners," said Jifan Gao, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Trina Solar. "We remain committed to the strong relationships we have developed in the European solar industry and will continue to deliver industry leading solutions together with our customers," added Ben Hill, President of Trina Solar Europe. "Open markets and increased competition have made solar energy in the European Union affordable, contributing to an increasingly diversified European energy mix and progress toward the ambitious EU 2020 climate change targets and 2050 roadmap. Today, the price for solar energy is already competitive with more carbon-intensive energy sources in some areas in Europe. A misguided trade conflict could undermine years of solar industry progress, investment and innovation in Europe," said Mr. Hill. Trina Solar believes that its transactions with customers in Europe were made in accordance with fair trade practices. It has, and will continue to, adhere to prudent and recognized industry practices and standards in the European Union.

Facebook (FB $22.64 -4.20) reported second quarter earnings of $0.12 per share, $0.01 better than the Capital IQ consensus of $0.11, while revenues rose 32.3% year/year to $1.18 billion versus the $1.15 billion consensus. Revenue from advertising was $992 million, representing 84% of total revenue and a 28% increase from the same quarter last year. Payments and other fees revenue for the second quarter was $192 million. Key Metrics: Monthly active users were 955 million as of June 30, 2012, an increase of 29% year-over-year. Daily active users (DAUs) were 552 million on average for June 2012, an increase of 32% year-over-year. Mobile MAUs were 543 million as of June 30, 2012, an increase of 67% year-over-year. No guidance was provided.

Amazon (AMZN $224.30 +4.95) reported second quarter earnings of $0.01 per share, in-line with the Capital IQ consensus of $0.01, while revenues rose 29.5% year/year to $12.83 billion versus the $12.88 bln consensus. Q2 operating income $107 million versus the guidance of ($260)-40 million and the $13 million consensus. The second quarter 2012 includes $65 million of estimated net loss related to the acquisition and integration of Kiva Systems, Inc... Co issues in-line rev guidance for Q3, sees Q3 revs of $12.9-14.3 bln vs. $14.11 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate. Sees Operating income (loss) to be between $(350) million and $(50) million, down from $79 million in the comparable prior year period and below the $115 mln Street expectation.

KLA-Tencor (KLAC $48.25 -1.41) reported Fourth quarter earnings of $1.49 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.18 better than the Capital IQ consensus of $1.31, while revenues were unchanged from the year-ago period at $892.5 million

NetSuite (N $49.42 +0.00) reported second quarter earnings of $0.06 per share, $0.02 better than the Capital IQ consensus of $0.04, while revenues rose 29.2% year/year to $74.7 million versus the $73.38 mln consensus. "In a quarter that saw many enterprise software companies struggle, NetSuite had one of its best quarters ever. We saw continued improvements across our financial metrics and exceeded our previously stated outlook on revenue, cash flow and non-GAAP EPS significantly. And the continued execution against our core strategies allows us to increase our full-year outlook for revenue and non-GAAP EPS"

QLogic (QGLC $11.10 -1.50) reported first quarter earnings of $0.26 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.01 worse than the Capital IQ consensus of $0.27, while revenues fell 9.8% year/year to $130.4 million the $131.1 mln

09:16 am QLogic downgraded to Hold at Stifel Nicolaus: . Stifel Nicolaus downgrades QLGC to Hold from Buy saying notably weak F2Q13 guide, coupled with uninspiring F1Q13 results, leave the firm to further question the underlying secular trends impacting the FC-based storage market and the long-awaited (and increasingly needed) materialization of a Romley-driven 10GbE/FCoE product cycle looking into late-2012/2013.

To: Return to Sender who wrote (56675)	3/14/2014 2:10:15 PM
From: Return to Sender	2 Recommendations Recommended By Donald Wennerstrom Gottfried Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95368

Major Market Indices on 6 Month Daily Charts versus the VIX (Fear Index) - Also included are the SOX/SMH and BKX because they are so important to the overall direction of the market. RSI (14) over 70 is overbought. Under 30 is oversold. Fear will generally be low while the market is moving steadily higher. Large spikes in the VIX often correspond with market bottoms.