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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (91860)	6/25/2012 8:14:29 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 218144

I'll be fleshing it out. See Italy's industrial production post-crisis. Message 28224759 See also on what the GDP growth pre-crisis was based on. Message 28224763 I will be adding to it. I think while I paint my house.

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (91860)	6/25/2012 4:57:16 PM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218144

the chart below illustrates, the bulk of the deterioration of Italy's trade deficit came from oil first (€60bn since 1999), and China second (€20bn). Excluding China and oil, Italy today runs a comfortable trade surplus that is almost twice as high as it was in 1999 in nominal terms, and that has remained roughly stable as % of GDP (3% to 4%). ELMAT: Lower oil price is a bonanza for EZ. Thus, the idea that the rise of Southern European trade deficits was essentially due to (or reflected in) intra-Eurozone trade imbalances is largely a myth. The additional consumption of Italian and Spanish households benefitted oil-producing countries, China and other Asian countries first and foremost. And viewed from the German side of the equation, only 13% of the rise of German exports of the last decade went to Southern Europe. The additional consumption of Italian and Spanish households benefitted oil-producing countries, China and other Asian countries first and foremost. And viewed from

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (91860)	6/25/2012 5:02:06 PM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 218144

Once EZ model exhausted only stimuli kept economies going but "they have inevitably led to burgeoning deficits and borrowings." ceforum.org OECD governments have now spent several years supporting their economies through fiscal stimuli and bank bailouts. While these measures have reduced the decline in their Gross Domestic Products (GDPs), they have inevitably led to burgeoning deficits and borrowings. Their legacy is therefore a new economic challenge: the need for deficit and debt reductions.

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (91860)	6/25/2012 5:04:27 PM
From: elmatador	1 Recommendation Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 218144

What if OPEC has too many Euros and are propping up Eurozone with lower oil prices to save the currency they hold as reserves? Saudi Arabia, the world’s top crude exporter, has added to supplies, cranking up output to a 30-year high. ... “Our actions have helped the oil price drop … which has acted as a type of stimulus to the European and world economy,” Ali Naimi, the Saudi oil minister, said recently. ft.com

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (91860)	6/26/2012 8:22:01 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218144

Terms of trade deteriorated for EZ. In layman's terms it means what quantity of imports can be purchased through the sale of a fixed quantity of exports. An improvement in a nation's terms of trade (the increase of the ratio) is good for that country in the sense that it can buy more imports for any given level of exports. If Italy exported 1 coffee machines and 1 ice cream machines and got two bags of sugar and five bags of coffee and ton of frozen orange juice. Now it exports the same machine but get only one bag of sugar and 3 bags of coffee, 300 L of frozen orange juice. That means it has to export more to get the same inputs it imported before. The terms of trade is influenced by the exchange rate because a rise in the value of a country's currency lowers the domestic prices for its imports but does not directly affect the commodities it produces (i.e. its exports). If Italy leaves the Euro and get a cheaper currency its imports will get much more expensive and will become even more difficult for its transformation industry.